2 Cliff Colby wants to determine whether his South Japan oil field will yield oil. He has hired geologist Digger Barnes to run tests on the field. If there is oil in the field, there is a 95% chance that Digger’s tests will indicate oil. If the field contains no oil, there is a 5% chance that Digger’s tests will indicate oil. If Digger’s tests indicate that there is no oil in the field, what is the probability that the field contains oil?
Before Digger conducts the test, Cliff believes that there is a 10% chance that the field will yield oil.