Consider the Walt Disney Company’s quarterly revenues as shown in Table 14.4.1. 

a. Draw a time-series plot for this data set. Describe any trend and seasonal behavior that you see. 

b. Find the moving average values and plot them on the same graph as the original data. Comment on what you see. 

c. Find the seasonal index for each quarter. In particular, how much higher is the fourth quarter than a typical quarter during the year? 

d. Find the seasonally adjusted values and plot them with the original data. Comment on what you see. 

e. From fourth quarter 2014 to the first quarter of 2015, revenues fell from 13.391 to 12.461. What happened on a seasonally adjusted basis? 

f. Find the regression equation to predict the long-term trend in seasonally adjusted sales for each time period, using 1, 2,… for the X variable. 

g. Compute the seasonally adjusted forecast for the fourth quarter of 2017. 

h. Compute the forecast for the first quarter of 2018.

 

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TABLE 14.4.1 Quarterly Revenues for Walt Disney Company and Subsidiaries Revenues ($ Billions) Year 8.580 2010 2010 10.002 2010 9.742 2010 10.716 2011 9.077 10.675 2011 2011 10.425 2011 10.779 2012 9.629 2012 11.088 2012 10.782 11.341 2012 2013 10.554 2013 11.578 2013 11.568 2013 12.309 2014 11.649 2014 12.466 12.389 2014 2014 13.391 2015 12.461 2015 13.101