Expected returns Over the past 50 years, Stock AAA has an average return of 6.4 % during normal economies. The return is half this during recessionary years. Contrarily, the return is double this during boom years. You think there is a 40 % chance of a normal economy and an equal chance of a recession and a boom next year. If Stock AAA’s stock price is $10 today, what do you think it will be next year?