1. There is a story about Charles Dickens (1812–1870), the English novelist and one of the most popular writers in the history of literature. It is known that Dickens was interested in practical applications of mathematics. On the final day in March during a year in the second half of the nineteenth century, he was scheduled to leave London by train and travel about an hour to visit a very good friend. However, Mr. Dickens was aware of the fact that in England there were, on the average, two serious train accidents each month. Knowing that there had been only one serious accident so far during the month of March, Dickens thought that the probability of a serious train accident on the last day of March would be very high. Thus he called his friend and postponed his visit until the next day. He boarded the train on April 1, feeling much safer and believing that he had used his knowledge of mathematics correctly by leaving the next day. He did arrive safely! Is there a fallacy in Dickens, argument? Explain.