Although you should not expect a perfectly fitting model for any time-series data, you can consider the
Question:
Although you should not expect a perfectly fitting model for any time-series data, you can consider the first differences, second differences, and percentage differences for a given series as guides in choosing an appropriate model.
Year | Series I | Series II | Series III |
---|---|---|---|
2005 | 10.0 | 30.0 | 60.0 |
2006 | 15.1 | 33.1 | 67.9 |
2007 | 24.0 | 36.4 | 76.1 |
2008 | 36.7 | 39.9 | 84.0 |
2009 | 53.8 | 43.9 | 92.2 |
2010 | 74.8 | 48.2 | 100.0 |
2011 | 100.0 | 53.2 | 108.0 |
2012 | 129.2 | 58.2 | 115.8 |
2013 | 162.4 | 64.5 | 124.1 |
2014 | 199.0 | 70.7 | 132.0 |
2015 | 239.3 | 77.1 | 140.0 |
2016 | 283.5 | 83.9 | 147.8 |
For this problem, use each of the time series presented in the table above and stored in TSModel1:
a. Determine the most appropriate model.
b. Compute the forecasting equation.
c. Forecast the value for 2017 .
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Related Book For
Public Finance An International Perspective
ISBN: 9789814365048
1st Edition
Authors: Joshua E. Greene
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