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A space shuttle is assigned to visit a TV satellite in a GSO (geosynchro-nous orbit) with radius 36,000 km (event A 1 ), and carry

A space shuttle is assigned to visit a TV satellite in a GSO (geosynchro-nous orbit) with radius 36,000 km (event A 1 ), and carry out maintenance (event B 1 ). Alternatively, it may, due to failure of one of the engines, go into an LEO (low Earth orbit) with radius 200 km (event A 2 ) and carry out a crop survey (event B 2 ). B 1 and B 2 are regarded as successful performance. The third possibility is failure to take off (event A 3 ). What is the reliability (probability of successful performance) of the space shuttle if P(B 1 |A 1 ) = 0.75, P(B 2 |A 2 ) = 0.85, P(A 1 ) = 0.80, and P(A 2 ) = 0.15?

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