In Problems 5-17 and 5-18. three different forecasts were developed for the demand for fertilizer. These three forecasts are a 3-year moving average, a weighted moving average, and a trend line. Which one would you use? Explain your answer. Reference Problem 5-18:

Develop a trend line for the demand for fertilizer in Problem 5-17, using any computer software.

Reference Problem 5-17:

Data collected on the yearly demand for 50-pound bags of fertilizer at Wallace Garden Supply are shown in the following table. Develop a 3-year moving average to forecast sales. Then estimate demand again with a weighted moving average in which sales in the most recent year are given a weight of 2 and sales in the other 2 years are each given a weight of 1. Which method do you think is best?

YEAR 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 DEMAND FOR FERTILIZER (1,000s OF BAGS) 4 6 4 5 10 879245 12 14 15