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As a manager, you are tasked with building a forecast of Microsoft stock price. MS Excel users: 1. Import historical Microsoft's stock price data into
As a manager, you are tasked with building a forecast of Microsoft stock price. MS Excel users: 1. Import historical Microsoft's stock price data into Excel and declare the dataset as time series 2. Build one moving average and one exponential smoothing forecast (choose any coefficients) 3. Calculate all three accuracy measures (MAE, MSE, and MAPE) to compare your models and suggest the best one 4. Build and appropriate chart that displays the actual data and both of your forecasts.
Date | Close |
1/1/1990 | 0.642361 |
2/1/1990 | 0.685764 |
3/1/1990 | 0.769097 |
4/1/1990 | 0.805556 |
5/1/1990 | 1.013889 |
6/1/1990 | 1.055556 |
7/1/1990 | 0.923611 |
8/1/1990 | 0.854167 |
9/1/1990 | 0.875 |
10/1/1990 | 0.885417 |
11/1/1990 | 1.003472 |
12/1/1990 | 1.045139 |
1/1/1991 | 1.362847 |
2/1/1991 | 1.440972 |
3/1/1991 | 1.473958 |
4/1/1991 | 1.375 |
5/1/1991 | 1.524306 |
6/1/1991 | 1.419271 |
7/1/1991 | 1.53125 |
8/1/1991 | 1.776042 |
9/1/1991 | 1.854167 |
10/1/1991 | 1.955729 |
11/1/1991 | 2.026042 |
12/1/1991 | 2.317708 |
1/1/1992 | 2.505208 |
2/1/1992 | 2.572917 |
3/1/1992 | 2.46875 |
4/1/1992 | 2.296875 |
5/1/1992 | 2.520833 |
6/1/1992 | 2.1875 |
7/1/1992 | 2.273438 |
8/1/1992 | 2.328125 |
9/1/1992 | 2.515625 |
10/1/1992 | 2.773438 |
11/1/1992 | 2.910156 |
12/1/1992 | 2.667969 |
1/1/1993 | 2.703125 |
2/1/1993 | 2.605469 |
3/1/1993 | 2.890625 |
4/1/1993 | 2.671875 |
5/1/1993 | 2.894531 |
6/1/1993 | 2.75 |
7/1/1993 | 2.3125 |
8/1/1993 | 2.347656 |
9/1/1993 | 2.578125 |
10/1/1993 | 2.503906 |
11/1/1993 | 2.5 |
12/1/1993 | 2.519531 |
1/1/1994 | 2.660156 |
2/1/1994 | 2.578125 |
3/1/1994 | 2.648438 |
4/1/1994 | 2.890625 |
5/1/1994 | 3.359375 |
6/1/1994 | 3.226563 |
7/1/1994 | 3.21875 |
8/1/1994 | 3.632813 |
9/1/1994 | 3.507813 |
10/1/1994 | 3.9375 |
11/1/1994 | 3.929688 |
12/1/1994 | 3.820313 |
1/1/1995 | 3.710938 |
2/1/1995 | 3.9375 |
3/1/1995 | 4.445313 |
4/1/1995 | 5.109375 |
5/1/1995 | 5.292969 |
6/1/1995 | 5.648438 |
7/1/1995 | 5.65625 |
8/1/1995 | 5.78125 |
9/1/1995 | 5.65625 |
10/1/1995 | 6.25 |
11/1/1995 | 5.445313 |
12/1/1995 | 5.484375 |
1/1/1996 | 5.78125 |
2/1/1996 | 6.167969 |
3/1/1996 | 6.445313 |
4/1/1996 | 7.078125 |
5/1/1996 | 7.421875 |
6/1/1996 | 7.507813 |
7/1/1996 | 7.367188 |
8/1/1996 | 7.65625 |
9/1/1996 | 8.242188 |
10/1/1996 | 8.578125 |
11/1/1996 | 9.804688 |
12/1/1996 | 10.328125 |
1/1/1997 | 12.75 |
2/1/1997 | 12.1875 |
3/1/1997 | 11.460938 |
4/1/1997 | 15.1875 |
5/1/1997 | 15.5 |
6/1/1997 | 15.796875 |
7/1/1997 | 17.671875 |
8/1/1997 | 16.523438 |
9/1/1997 | 16.539063 |
10/1/1997 | 16.25 |
11/1/1997 | 17.6875 |
12/1/1997 | 16.15625 |
1/1/1998 | 18.648438 |
2/1/1998 | 21.1875 |
3/1/1998 | 22.375 |
4/1/1998 | 22.53125 |
5/1/1998 | 21.203125 |
6/1/1998 | 27.09375 |
7/1/1998 | 27.484375 |
8/1/1998 | 23.984375 |
9/1/1998 | 27.515625 |
10/1/1998 | 26.46875 |
11/1/1998 | 30.5 |
12/1/1998 | 34.671875 |
1/1/1999 | 43.75 |
2/1/1999 | 37.53125 |
3/1/1999 | 44.8125 |
4/1/1999 | 40.65625 |
5/1/1999 | 40.34375 |
6/1/1999 | 45.09375 |
7/1/1999 | 42.90625 |
8/1/1999 | 46.28125 |
9/1/1999 | 45.28125 |
10/1/1999 | 46.28125 |
11/1/1999 | 45.523438 |
12/1/1999 | 58.375 |
1/1/2000 | 48.9375 |
2/1/2000 | 44.6875 |
3/1/2000 | 53.125 |
4/1/2000 | 34.875 |
5/1/2000 | 31.28125 |
6/1/2000 | 40 |
7/1/2000 | 34.90625 |
8/1/2000 | 34.90625 |
9/1/2000 | 30.15625 |
10/1/2000 | 34.4375 |
11/1/2000 | 28.6875 |
12/1/2000 | 21.6875 |
1/1/2001 | 30.53125 |
2/1/2001 | 29.5 |
3/1/2001 | 27.34375 |
4/1/2001 | 33.875 |
5/1/2001 | 34.59 |
6/1/2001 | 36.5 |
7/1/2001 | 33.095001 |
8/1/2001 | 28.525 |
9/1/2001 | 25.584999 |
10/1/2001 | 29.075001 |
11/1/2001 | 32.105 |
12/1/2001 | 33.125 |
1/1/2002 | 31.855 |
2/1/2002 | 29.17 |
3/1/2002 | 30.155001 |
4/1/2002 | 26.129999 |
5/1/2002 | 25.455 |
6/1/2002 | 27.35 |
7/1/2002 | 23.99 |
8/1/2002 | 24.540001 |
9/1/2002 | 21.870001 |
10/1/2002 | 26.735001 |
11/1/2002 | 28.84 |
12/1/2002 | 25.85 |
1/1/2003 | 23.73 |
2/1/2003 | 23.700001 |
3/1/2003 | 24.209999 |
4/1/2003 | 25.57 |
5/1/2003 | 24.610001 |
6/1/2003 | 25.639999 |
7/1/2003 | 26.41 |
8/1/2003 | 26.52 |
9/1/2003 | 27.799999 |
10/1/2003 | 26.139999 |
11/1/2003 | 25.709999 |
12/1/2003 | 27.370001 |
1/1/2004 | 27.65 |
2/1/2004 | 26.530001 |
3/1/2004 | 24.93 |
4/1/2004 | 26.129999 |
5/1/2004 | 26.23 |
6/1/2004 | 28.559999 |
7/1/2004 | 28.49 |
8/1/2004 | 27.299999 |
9/1/2004 | 27.65 |
10/1/2004 | 27.969999 |
11/1/2004 | 26.809999 |
12/1/2004 | 26.719999 |
1/1/2005 | 26.280001 |
2/1/2005 | 25.16 |
3/1/2005 | 24.17 |
4/1/2005 | 25.299999 |
5/1/2005 | 25.799999 |
6/1/2005 | 24.84 |
7/1/2005 | 25.610001 |
8/1/2005 | 27.379999 |
9/1/2005 | 25.73 |
10/1/2005 | 25.700001 |
11/1/2005 | 27.68 |
12/1/2005 | 26.15 |
1/1/2006 | 28.15 |
2/1/2006 | 26.870001 |
3/1/2006 | 27.209999 |
4/1/2006 | 24.15 |
5/1/2006 | 22.65 |
6/1/2006 | 23.299999 |
7/1/2006 | 24.059999 |
8/1/2006 | 25.700001 |
9/1/2006 | 27.35 |
10/1/2006 | 28.709999 |
11/1/2006 | 29.360001 |
12/1/2006 | 29.860001 |
1/1/2007 | 30.860001 |
2/1/2007 | 28.17 |
3/1/2007 | 27.870001 |
4/1/2007 | 29.940001 |
5/1/2007 | 30.690001 |
6/1/2007 | 29.469999 |
7/1/2007 | 28.99 |
8/1/2007 | 28.73 |
9/1/2007 | 29.459999 |
10/1/2007 | 36.810001 |
11/1/2007 | 33.599998 |
12/1/2007 | 35.599998 |
1/1/2008 | 32.599998 |
2/1/2008 | 27.200001 |
3/1/2008 | 28.379999 |
4/1/2008 | 28.52 |
5/1/2008 | 28.32 |
6/1/2008 | 27.51 |
7/1/2008 | 25.719999 |
8/1/2008 | 27.290001 |
9/1/2008 | 26.690001 |
10/1/2008 | 22.33 |
11/1/2008 | 20.219999 |
12/1/2008 | 19.440001 |
1/1/2009 | 17.1 |
2/1/2009 | 16.15 |
3/1/2009 | 18.370001 |
4/1/2009 | 20.26 |
5/1/2009 | 20.889999 |
6/1/2009 | 23.77 |
7/1/2009 | 23.52 |
8/1/2009 | 24.65 |
9/1/2009 | 25.719999 |
10/1/2009 | 27.73 |
11/1/2009 | 29.41 |
12/1/2009 | 30.48 |
1/1/2010 | 28.18 |
2/1/2010 | 28.67 |
3/1/2010 | 29.290001 |
4/1/2010 | 30.540001 |
5/1/2010 | 25.799999 |
6/1/2010 | 23.01 |
7/1/2010 | 25.809999 |
8/1/2010 | 23.469999 |
9/1/2010 | 24.49 |
10/1/2010 | 26.67 |
11/1/2010 | 25.26 |
12/1/2010 | 27.91 |
1/1/2011 | 27.73 |
2/1/2011 | 26.58 |
3/1/2011 | 25.389999 |
4/1/2011 | 25.92 |
5/1/2011 | 25.01 |
6/1/2011 | 26 |
7/1/2011 | 27.4 |
8/1/2011 | 26.6 |
9/1/2011 | 24.889999 |
10/1/2011 | 26.629999 |
11/1/2011 | 25.58 |
12/1/2011 | 25.959999 |
1/1/2012 | 29.530001 |
2/1/2012 | 31.74 |
3/1/2012 | 32.259998 |
4/1/2012 | 32.02 |
5/1/2012 | 29.190001 |
6/1/2012 | 30.59 |
7/1/2012 | 29.469999 |
8/1/2012 | 30.82 |
9/1/2012 | 29.76 |
10/1/2012 | 28.540001 |
11/1/2012 | 26.620001 |
12/1/2012 | 26.709999 |
1/1/2013 | 27.450001 |
2/1/2013 | 27.799999 |
3/1/2013 | 28.610001 |
4/1/2013 | 33.099998 |
5/1/2013 | 34.900002 |
6/1/2013 | 34.540001 |
7/1/2013 | 31.84 |
8/1/2013 | 33.400002 |
9/1/2013 | 33.279999 |
10/1/2013 | 35.41 |
11/1/2013 | 38.130001 |
12/1/2013 | 37.41 |
1/1/2014 | 37.84 |
2/1/2014 | 38.310001 |
3/1/2014 | 40.990002 |
4/1/2014 | 40.400002 |
5/1/2014 | 40.939999 |
6/1/2014 | 41.700001 |
7/1/2014 | 43.16 |
8/1/2014 | 45.43 |
9/1/2014 | 46.360001 |
10/1/2014 | 46.950001 |
11/1/2014 | 47.810001 |
12/1/2014 | 46.450001 |
1/1/2015 | 40.400002 |
2/1/2015 | 43.849998 |
3/1/2015 | 40.66 |
4/1/2015 | 48.639999 |
5/1/2015 | 46.860001 |
6/1/2015 | 44.150002 |
7/1/2015 | 46.700001 |
8/1/2015 | 43.52 |
9/1/2015 | 44.259998 |
10/1/2015 | 52.639999 |
11/1/2015 | 54.349998 |
12/1/2015 | 55.48 |
1/1/2016 | 55.09 |
2/1/2016 | 50.880001 |
3/1/2016 | 55.23 |
4/1/2016 | 49.869999 |
5/1/2016 | 53 |
6/1/2016 | 51.169998 |
7/1/2016 | 56.68 |
8/1/2016 | 57.459999 |
9/1/2016 | 57.599998 |
10/1/2016 | 59.919998 |
11/1/2016 | 60.259998 |
12/1/2016 | 62.139999 |
1/1/2017 | 64.650002 |
2/1/2017 | 63.98 |
3/1/2017 | 65.860001 |
4/1/2017 | 68.459999 |
5/1/2017 | 69.839996 |
6/1/2017 | 68.93 |
7/1/2017 | 72.699997 |
8/1/2017 | 74.769997 |
9/1/2017 | 74.489998 |
10/1/2017 | 83.18 |
11/1/2017 | 84.169998 |
12/1/2017 | 85.540001 |
1/1/2018 | 95.010002 |
2/1/2018 | 93.769997 |
3/1/2018 | 91.269997 |
4/1/2018 | 93.519997 |
5/1/2018 | 98.839996 |
6/1/2018 | 98.610001 |
7/1/2018 | 106.080002 |
8/1/2018 | 112.330002 |
9/1/2018 | 114.370003 |
10/1/2018 | 106.809998 |
11/1/2018 | 110.889999 |
12/1/2018 | 101.57 |
1/1/2019 | 104.43 |
2/1/2019 | 112.029999 |
3/1/2019 | 117.940002 |
4/1/2019 | 130.600006 |
5/1/2019 | 123.68 |
6/1/2019 | 133.960007 |
7/1/2019 | 136.270004 |
8/1/2019 | 137.860001 |
9/1/2019 | 139.029999 |
10/1/2019 | 143.369995 |
11/1/2019 | 151.380005 |
12/1/2019 | 157.699997 |
1/1/2020 | 170.229996 |
2/1/2020 | 162.009995 |
3/1/2020 | 157.710007 |
4/1/2020 | 179.210007 |
5/1/2020 | 183.25 |
6/1/2020 | 203.509995 |
7/1/2020 | 205.009995 |
8/1/2020 | 225.529999 |
9/1/2020 | 210.330002 |
10/1/2020 | 202.470001 |
11/1/2020 | 214.070007 |
12/1/2020 | 222.419998 |
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