Question
You have been hired to estimate the annual burden of disease using two outcome measures for a specific childhood vaccine-preventable disease. Assume the numbers below
You have been hired to estimate the annual burden of disease using two outcome measures for a specific childhood vaccine-preventable disease. Assume the numbers below represent a closed system for a given year (i.e., disease and treatment occur within a given year, and children outside of this closed system do not affect any calculations). Use this information and Crystal Ball to build a spreadsheet model that will estimate both the number of children who contract the disease per year, and the total cost of treating disease (for all children) per year. Variables (all per year) Input/Distributional information Other Details Number of children 500,000 n/a % who get immunized Min 75%, Max 100%, Most likely 90% n/a % of immunized who contract disease Between 0.1% and 0.3%, all equally likely .75 correlation with % NOT immunized who contract disease % NOT immunized who contract disease Between 4% and 12%, all equally likely .75 correlation with % of immunized who contract disease Cost of treating disease per child Mean $1200, SD $250 Determined from population data
On average, how many children are expected to get the disease per year?
What is the maximum number of children who would be expected to get the disease in a given year? To the nearest percent, what percentage of simulation trials indicate that the total cost of treating disease will be at least $10 million in a given year?
To the nearest percent, what percentage of simulation trials indicate that at least 5000 children will contract the disease in a given year?
please provide with formulas for excel
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