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1 A risk-averse investor is considering two possible assets to be held on a standalone basis. The possible returns and related probabilities (i.e. the probability
1 | A risk-averse investor is considering two possible assets to be held on a standalone basis. The possible returns and related probabilities (i.e. the probability distributions) for each assets are as follows: | ||||||||||||||
Asset X | Asset Y | ||||||||||||||
Prob | rx | ry | Review Thought: Why do we care about a lower SD or CV - given returns are the same? Would the answer change if the investor had a higher appetite for Risk? | ||||||||||||
5% | -10% | -4% | |||||||||||||
20% | 2% | 1% | |||||||||||||
50% | 7% | 6% | |||||||||||||
20% | 8% | 10% | |||||||||||||
5% | 12% | 12% | |||||||||||||
100% | |||||||||||||||
Considering both its return and relative risk, which asset is preferred? Why? | |||||||||||||||
Answer: | |||||||||||||||
Which asset? | |||||||||||||||
Why? | |||||||||||||||
Or, alternatively - | |||||||||||||||
Asset X | Asset Y | ||||||||||||||
Asset X | Asset Y | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | ||||||
Prob | rx | ry | Return x Prob | Deviation from Mean | Deviation Squared | Deviation Squared x Probability | Return x Prob | Deviation from Mean | Deviation Squared | Deviation Squared x Probability | |||||
5% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |||||||
20% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |||||||
50% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |||||||
20% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |||||||
5% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |||||||
Mean | 0.00% | 0.00% | Mean | 0.00% | Variance | 0.00% | Mean | 0.00% | Variance | 0.00% | |||||
St Dev | 0.00% | 0.00% | Standard Deviation | 0.00% | Standard Deviation | 0.00% | |||||||||
CV | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | CV | #DIV/0! | CV | #DIV/0! | |||||||||
?: If CV > 100% | |||||||||||||||
Guesstimated Mean for X and Y? Could be 2% or 7%? Why not? | |||||||||||||||
2 | You are a risk-averse investor. Suppose two stocks had the following historical returns: | ||||||||||||||
Stock A | Stock B | Portfolio | |||||||||||||
Year 1 | 4% | -3% | 0.5% | ||||||||||||
Year 2 | -4% | 3% | -0.5% | ||||||||||||
Year 3 | 10% | 10% | 10.0% | ||||||||||||
Year 4 | 15% | 9% | 12.0% | ||||||||||||
Year 5 | 6% | 12% | 9.0% | ||||||||||||
Further suppose you have 3 investment options - a) hold only Stock A, b) hold only Stock B or c) hold a portfolio consisting of 50% of each stock. From a risk perspective only, which would you choose? Why? | |||||||||||||||
Ans. | |||||||||||||||
Stock A, stock B or the Portfolio? | |||||||||||||||
Why? | |||||||||||||||
Stock A | Stock B | Portfolio | |||||||||||||
Year 1 | 4% | -3% | 0.5% | ||||||||||||
Year 2 | -4% | 3% | -0.5% | ||||||||||||
Year 3 | 10% | 10% | 10.0% | ||||||||||||
Year 4 | 15% | 9% | 12.0% | ||||||||||||
Year 5 | 6% | 12% | 9.0% | ||||||||||||
Mean | |||||||||||||||
St. Dev | |||||||||||||||
CV | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | ||||||||||||
Correlation between A & B | |||||||||||||||
3 | Given the information below, what is the value of beta for this stock? | ||||||||||||||
There will be two-step process needed to solve this. | |||||||||||||||
1) Solve for the rate of return to the stock using the constant dividend growth model. | |||||||||||||||
2) Plug that answer into the Security Market Line (SML) formula to solve for beta. | |||||||||||||||
P0 = | $70 | Use this with the constant dividend growth model. | |||||||||||||
D1 = | $1.50 | Use this with the constant dividend growth model. | |||||||||||||
g = | 3.0% | Use this with the constant dividend growth model. | |||||||||||||
rrf = | 2% | Use this with the SML formual. | |||||||||||||
rm = | 10% | Use this with the SML formual. Note that this is the market return. | |||||||||||||
Answers | |||||||||||||||
a. | 0.35 | ||||||||||||||
b. | 0.39 | ||||||||||||||
c. | 0.45 | ||||||||||||||
Review Thought: In step 2, any questions on rearranging the equation to isolate, and then solve for, Beta? | |||||||||||||||
Answer: | |||||||||||||||
Step 1 | Find rs: | ||||||||||||||
r s= D1/P0 + g | |||||||||||||||
Step 2 | Use the CAPM to find beta: | ||||||||||||||
rs = rRF + (rM - rRF)b | |||||||||||||||
Please contact me with questions on solving for 'beta'. | |||||||||||||||
4 | Suppose you have the following information about a stock: | ||||||||||||||
Expected Return | |||||||||||||||
D0 = | $3.00 | ||||||||||||||
P0 = | $45 | ||||||||||||||
g = | 2.0% | ||||||||||||||
Required Return | |||||||||||||||
rrf = | 2% | ||||||||||||||
rm = | 10% | Note that this is the market return. | |||||||||||||
b = | 0.9 | ||||||||||||||
Calculate the expected return on a stock, use the Constant Dividend Growth model in your analysis. | |||||||||||||||
Next, calculate the required return on a stock using the Security Market Line (SML) formula. | |||||||||||||||
With that background in mind, address the following questions. | |||||||||||||||
a) Is this stock in equilibrium? Explain your reasoning. | |||||||||||||||
b) If it is not in equilibrium, determine the equilibrium price. | |||||||||||||||
Answer: | |||||||||||||||
a. Yes or No | |||||||||||||||
Explain | |||||||||||||||
b. Equilibrium Price | |||||||||||||||
Expected return | |||||||||||||||
rs = | D0 x (1+g)/P0 + g | ||||||||||||||
rs = | |||||||||||||||
Required Return | |||||||||||||||
rs = | rrf + b (rm - rrf) | ||||||||||||||
rs = | |||||||||||||||
b. Expected return < Required return. Sell stock reducing its price until the Expected return = Required return. | |||||||||||||||
Plug the required return as calculated in the CAPM into the Constant Dividend Growth model. | |||||||||||||||
P0 = | D0 x (1+g)/(rs - g) | ||||||||||||||
P0 = | |||||||||||||||
5 | You are given the following information on the S&P 500 and the stock price of ABC Corporation. | ||||||||||||||
Calculate the following metrics: | |||||||||||||||
a. | Average annual return for each. | ||||||||||||||
b. | Average annual standard deviation for each. | ||||||||||||||
c. | Minimum monthly return. | ||||||||||||||
d. | Maximum monthly return. | ||||||||||||||
e. | Correlation between the market and ABC corporation. | ||||||||||||||
f. | Beta calculated using the correlation coefficient & standard deviation formula. | ||||||||||||||
Month | Market Level (S&P 500 Index) at Month End | Market's Return | ABC Stock Price at Month End | ABC's Return | |||||||||||
March 2022 | 1,408.47 | 3.1% | $56.51 | -2.2% | |||||||||||
February 2022 | 1,365.68 | 4.1% | $57.76 | 0.1% | |||||||||||
January 2022 | 1,312.41 | 4.4% | $57.68 | 18.4% | |||||||||||
December 2021 | 1,257.60 | 0.9% | $49.80 | -8.3% | |||||||||||
November 2021 | 1,246.96 | -0.5% | $54.30 | 0.6% | |||||||||||
October 2021 | 1,253.30 | 12.8% | $53.99 | 2.8% | |||||||||||
September 2021 | 1,131.42 | -7.2% | $52.53 | -2.7% | |||||||||||
August 2021 | 1,218.89 | -5.7% | $53.99 | 11.3% | |||||||||||
July 2021 | 1,292.28 | -2.1% | $48.51 | -8.8% | |||||||||||
June 2021 | 1,320.64 | -1.8% | $53.17 | -1.8% | |||||||||||
May 2021 | 1,345.20 | -1.4% | $54.16 | -7.3% | |||||||||||
April 2021 | 1,363.61 | 2.8% | $58.42 | 9.4% | |||||||||||
March 2021 | 1,325.83 | -0.1% | $53.39 | 10.4% | |||||||||||
February 2021 | 1,327.22 | 3.2% | $48.38 | -1.5% | |||||||||||
January 2021 | 1,286.12 | 2.3% | $49.10 | 10.7% | |||||||||||
December 2020 | 1,257.64 | 6.5% | $44.34 | 13.0% | |||||||||||
November 2020 | 1,180.55 | -0.2% | $39.23 | -12.8% | |||||||||||
October 2020 | 1,183.26 | 3.7% | $44.97 | 12.5% | |||||||||||
September 2020 | 1,141.20 | 8.8% | $39.96 | -4.7% | |||||||||||
August 2020 | 1,049.33 | -4.7% | $41.93 | 11.0% | |||||||||||
July 2020 | 1,101.60 | 6.9% | $37.78 | -4.4% | |||||||||||
June 2020 | 1,030.71 | -5.4% | $39.51 | 17.0% | |||||||||||
May 2020 | 1,089.41 | -8.2% | $33.78 | -21.3% | |||||||||||
April 2020 | 1,186.69 | 1.5% | $42.92 | 11.1% | |||||||||||
March 2020 | 1,169.43 | 5.9% | $38.62 | -8.6% | |||||||||||
February 2020 | 1,104.49 | 2.9% | $42.25 | 5.3% | |||||||||||
January 2020 | 1,073.87 | -3.7% | $40.14 | 4.9% | |||||||||||
December 2019 | 1,115.10 | 1.8% | $38.26 | 15.4% | |||||||||||
November 2019 | 1,095.63 | 5.7% | $33.16 | -8.2% | |||||||||||
October 2019 | 1,036.19 | -2.0% | $36.11 | 12.7% | |||||||||||
September 2019 | 1,057.08 | 3.6% | $32.04 | -1.1% | |||||||||||
August 2019 | 1,020.62 | 3.4% | $32.41 | 13.0% | |||||||||||
July 2019 | 987.48 | 7.4% | $28.69 | -16.9% | |||||||||||
June 2019 | 919.32 | 0.0% | $34.51 | 9.5% | |||||||||||
May 2019 | 919.14 | 5.3% | $31.52 | 4.3% | |||||||||||
April 2019 | 872.81 | 9.4% | $30.23 | 27.6% | |||||||||||
March 2019 | 797.87 | 8.5% | $24.16 | 3.3% | |||||||||||
February 2019 | 735.09 | -11.0% | $23.38 | -17.1% | |||||||||||
January 2019 | 825.88 | -8.6% | $28.20 | -3.6% | |||||||||||
December 2018 | 903.25 | 0.8% | $29.24 | 18.1% | |||||||||||
November 2018 | 896.24 | -7.5% | $24.76 | -15.2% | |||||||||||
October 2018 | 968.75 | -18.9% | $29.21 | -4.0% | |||||||||||
September 2018 | 1,166.36 | -9.1% | $30.43 | -27.4% | |||||||||||
August 2018 | 1,282.83 | 1.2% | $36.83 | 17.3% | |||||||||||
July 2018 | 1,267.38 | -1.0% | $31.41 | -8.1% | |||||||||||
June 2018 | 1,280.00 | -8.6% | $34.18 | -8.6% | |||||||||||
May 2018 | 1,400.38 | 1.1% | $37.38 | -10.9% | |||||||||||
April 2018 | 1,385.59 | 4.8% | $41.95 | 10.2% | |||||||||||
March 2018 | 1,322.70 | NA | $38.07 | NA | |||||||||||
Answers: | |||||||||||||||
Description of Data | Market | ABC | |||||||||||||
a. Average return (annual): | |||||||||||||||
b. Standard deviation (annual): | |||||||||||||||
c. Minimum monthly return: | |||||||||||||||
d. Maximum monthly return: | |||||||||||||||
e. Correlation between ABC and the market: | |||||||||||||||
f. Beta: babc = pabc,M (abc / M) | |||||||||||||||
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