1. Consider the following simplied view of a jury weighing evidence (treat the jury as a single decision maker). A defendant in a court case is accused of committing a crime. Independent of guilt (G) or innocence (I), with probability 3E4, the defendant possesses evidence. This evidence is in the set {d1, d2, d3}. When he possesses evidence, the probability of which document it is depends on whether he is guilty or innocent. We denote the probabilities with which d.L is realized, conditional on I or G, respectively, (and conditional on evidence being realized) by Pr. and pm. Suppose these are given by pI3 = NS, pI2 = BIS, p\" = 1K4, pm = US, pa = US, and p;31 = 3M. Assume the prior belief that the detendant is innocent is 3f8. Suppose that the jury believes that both guilty and innocent types of the defendant do not disclose d], but both do disclose d2 and (13. What is the jury's posterior belief that the defendant is innocent when it observes no document disclosed