1. Consider the following time series data,

a. fill in the table below using the nave method (most recent value) as the forecast for the next year,

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

Year	Value	Forecast	Forecast Error	Absolute Value of Forecast Error	Squared Forecast Error	Percentag Value of	Absolute e Error Percentag e Error
1	234
2	287
3	255
4	310
5	298
6	250
7	456
8	412
9	525
10	436
	Total

b. Compute the following measures of forecast accuracy:

Mean absolute error

Mean squared error

Mean absolute percentage error

What is the forecast for year 11? Consider the following time series data,

a. fill in the table belowthe average of all the historical data as a forecast for the next year,

Year	Value	Forecast	Forecast Error	Absolute Value of Forecast Error	Squared Error	Forecast Percenta Value of e Error	Absolute Percentag e Error
1	234
2	287
3	255
4	310
5	298
6	250
7	456
8	412
9	525
10	436
	Total

b. Compute the following measures of forecast accuracy:

Mean absolute error

Mean squared error

Mean absolute percentage error

What is the forecast for year 11?

c. Which method appears to provide the better forecast comparing the nave method to the average of past values forecasting? 1. Consider the following time series data:

Year

Value

1

234

2

287

3

255

4

310

5

6

298

250

7

302

8

267

9

225

10

336

a.

b.

Construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exists in the data?

Develop a three-year moving average for this time series by filling in the following table.

Year

Value

Forecast

Forecast

Error

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

squared

Forecast

Error

234

287

255

310

298

250

302

267

225

336

c. Compute MSE and a forecast for the year 11. a.

Use a = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing values for the time series by filling in the following table. Compute MSE and a forecast for year 11.

Year

1

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Value

Forecast

Forecast

Error

234

287

255

310

298

250

302

267

225

336

Squared Forecast

Error

b. Compute MSE and a forecast for the year 11.

R

S

c. Which method appears to provide the better forecast comparing the moving average and the exponential smooting?