1. Consider the following time series data.

week	1	2	3	4	5	6	7
value	24	13	20	12	19	23	15

Use naive method (most recent value) as the forecast for the next period, compute mean absolute error, mean squared error, mean absolute percentage error and forecast for week 8.

2. Consider the following time series data:

week

1

2

3

4

5

6

value

18

13

16

11

17

14

What are the forecasts for days 4 through 6 using a 3-period moving average model? Round the forecasts to two decimal places. With an alpha value of 0.4 and 0.2, what are the exponentially smoothed forecasts? Which exponential smoothing model provides better forecast, one using = 0.4 or = 0.2?

3. Province of British Columbia has been spending ten million dollars annually on educating young adults about the dangers of opioid use. The following data show the percentage of young adults in British Columbia over the period of 11 years who used opioid atleast once.

Year	Percentage of young adults who used opioid atleast once
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11	7.8 7.5 6.6 5.9 5.9 5.8 4.8 5.6 5.6 4.3 3.9

1.Construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exists in the data?

2. Use simple linear regression analysis to nd the parameters for the line that minimizes MSE for this time series.

3. What is the forecast for the next year

Note; Excel File prefferd