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1. Customer A spends $1,300 this year at your firm. What is the LTV in 5 years out? Assume 2% interest rates and a 100%

1. Customer A spends $1,300 this year at your firm. What is the LTV in 5 years out? Assume 2% interest rates and a 100% probability of retention.

a. What is the answer with a non-constant cash flow?

b. What s the answer with constant cash flow?

2. Your firm has the following probabilities of retention (from the previous year) for someone who first shops in your store in year X:

Year

p(retention)

X

1.00

X+1

0.60

X+2

0.32

X+3

0.90

X+4

0.82

X+5

0.88

X+6

0.97

X+7

0.87

X+8

0.85

a. What is the overall probability of someone from year 0 remaining through year 7?

b. Use this table to provide a more correct answer to question 1.

3. Your firm finds that using a rolling three-year average is the most accurate input for LTV. A customer spent $500 two years ago, $100 last year, and $600 this year. Using a 5% interest rate, what is the LTV for five years out, assuming full retention?

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