Question
1. Customer A spends $1,300 this year at your firm. What is the LTV in 5 years out? Assume 2% interest rates and a 100%
1. Customer A spends $1,300 this year at your firm. What is the LTV in 5 years out? Assume 2% interest rates and a 100% probability of retention.
a. What is the answer with a non-constant cash flow?
b. What s the answer with constant cash flow?
2. Your firm has the following probabilities of retention (from the previous year) for someone who first shops in your store in year X:
Year | p(retention) |
X | 1.00 |
X+1 | 0.60 |
X+2 | 0.32 |
X+3 | 0.90 |
X+4 | 0.82 |
X+5 | 0.88 |
X+6 | 0.97 |
X+7 | 0.87 |
X+8 | 0.85 |
a. What is the overall probability of someone from year 0 remaining through year 7?
b. Use this table to provide a more correct answer to question 1.
3. Your firm finds that using a rolling three-year average is the most accurate input for LTV. A customer spent $500 two years ago, $100 last year, and $600 this year. Using a 5% interest rate, what is the LTV for five years out, assuming full retention?
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