1) Effectiveness of new screening tests for a disease. Scientists have created a screening test for a newly emerged disease. The test needs to be checked to ensure that its results are accurate. It was used on a group of 160 people, and the results came out positive for only six of the 20 people known to have the disease. In addition, the test gave a positive result for two of the people known not to have the disease. If you were to take the test and receive a positive result, what is the probability that you have the disease? Would you recommend using the new screening test? [20 points]