Question
1. Estimating Risk free rate and Equity Risk Premium ( 4 marks) a. Choose a currency to do your analysis in and estimate a risk-free
1. Estimating Risk free rate and Equity Risk Premium (4 marks)
a. Choose a currency to do your analysis in and estimate a risk-free rate in that currency. If there is a Aaa rated entity issuing long term bonds in the currency, you can use the interest rate on those bonds as your risk-free rate. If not, you will have to subtract out the default spread for the entity from the interest rate on the entitys bonds to get to a risk-free rate.
b. Based on the geographical risk exposure of your company, estimate an equity risk premium for the company. You should be able to find at least a revenue breakdown by region, in your companys financial reports, and sometimes asset and income breakdowns. You can find equity risk premiums for individual countries, as well as regions, on http://www.damodaran.com (under updated data).
2. Estimating relative risk (5 marks)
a. Run a regression of returns on your firms stock against returns on a market index, preferably using monthly data and 5 years of observations. Use the regression to evaluate your companys performance on a risk adjusted basis during the period of the regression and its riskiness, relative to the market, and break down the risk into firm specific and market components. To run the regression, you will need to get data on past returns for your stock and for a market index.
b. Based on your companys business mix, estimate a bottom up beta for your companys operating businesses. You should be able to find the breakdown by business in your companys financial filings, though the details are richer in some than others. To get the beta for each business, you will need to find other publicly traded companies that operate primarily in that business, average their betas and correct for financial leverage and cash holdings.
c. Estimate the market value of debt outstanding in the company (see below), compute a market debt to equity ratio for the entire company, and use that ratio to compute a levered beta for the company. If you can allocate the debt across the different businesses, compute the debt to equity ratio and levered beta for each business. (If not, use the companys debt to equity ratio for all of the businesses).
d. Use the levered betas, in conjunction with the risk-freerate and equity risk premium, to compute costs of equity for each business and for the overall company.
3. Estimating Default Risk and Cost of Debt (2 marks)
a. If your company is rated, find the bond rating and estimate a default spread based on the rating. Add the default spread to the risk-free rate to estimate a pre-tax cost of debt.
b. Estimate a synthetic rating for your company, based upon financial ratios. If the company has an actual rating, compare the synthetic rating to the actual rating and explain the reasons for differences. If your company does not have an actual rating, use the synthetic rating to estimate a default spread for the companys debt and a pre-tax cost of debt based on that spread.
c. Estimate the marginal tax rate for your company, based on the country of incorporation and use that tax rate to compute an after-tax cost of debt for the company and its divisions (if they have their own costs of debt)
4. Estimating Cost of Capital (3 marks)
a. Compute the market value of all of the companys equity.
b. Compute the market value of the companys interest-bearing debt, using the interest expenses and weighted maturity of the debt, if need be. Compute the present value of lease and other contractual commitments that your company has contractually obligated itself to pay. Add the two values to estimate the market value of debt (which you will need to use for the levered beta computation in the earlier section)
c. Compute a debt to capital ratio, using the market values, and a cost of capital based on this ratio for both the company and its individual business units.
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