$1.$ For the below data, find the forecast for Quarter#$9$ using

Exponential Smoothing Method. $(100$ Points$)$

A$.$ Find the forecast using Alpha $\backslash$alpha $=0\mathrm{.}1(30$ Points$)$

B$.$ Find the forecast using Alpha $\backslash$alpha $=0\mathrm{.}5(30$ Points$)$

C$.$ Find MAD, MSE and MAPE for each model. $(30$ Points$)$

D$.$ Which model do you think is more accurate? $(10$ Points$)$

Assume initial forecast to be $175.$

You may submit your answers in MS Excel only.

Quarter Actual Tonnage Unloaded

$1180$

$2168$

$3159$

$4175$

$5190$

$6205$

$7180$

$8182$