$1.$ Given the project information in the following table, what is the probability of completing the National Holiday Toy project in $93$ time

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Tue Mar $196$:$43$ PM

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$7)$

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Act. ID

Description

Predecessor

Optm. $($a$)$

Most likely $($m$)$ Pess. $($b$)$

Act time te

Variance $$b$-$a$/612$

Critical

$1$

Design package

None

$6$

$12$

$24$

$2$

Design product

$1$

$16$

$19$

$28$

$3$

Build package

$1$

$4$

$7$

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$4$

Secure patent

$2$

$24$

$27$

$36$

$5$

Build product

$2$

$4$I

$29$

$47$

$6$

Paint

$3,4,5$

$4$

$7$

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$7$

Test market

$6$

$13$

$16$

$19$