1. List the characteristics of the Great Moderation, and then explain whether you think the economy has returned to that condition since the end of the Great Recession.

2. The article ends by saying that, "In predicting recessions, a good rule of thumb is to worry less about average length of business cycles and more about whether the economy is overheating- consider that shocks could throw off all predictions." Explain what a shock is, and then describe how a shock might throw off a prediction.