1 - N 14 BE IT19- PPLBA 15 5. Refer to the solution in 2, if the storm does not hit Napa Valley, then Mr. Jaeger must still decide 16 whether to harvest right away or to wait. If he waits, then there is a chance of 'lowacid' wine that will 17 yield less revenue. Currently the probability of this outcome has been updated in 2. Perform 18 sensitivity analysis (as "p" for the low acid probability) to determine the probability at which Mr. 19 Jaeger is indifferent between harvesting now and leaving the grapes on the vine, given that the storm 20 does not hit Napa Valley. 21 22 25 26 35 100% 36 21:12 610 #IB DX 8X18 LO 23.C + 0.4 Botrytis mold USD 67,200 0.5 Storm Do not Thin Wine USD 24,000 harvest 0.6 No Botrytis Wine in bulk USD 12,000 0.5 Sell grapes directly USD 12,000 No Storm 0.4 Good Wine USD 42,000 Do not 0.3 harvest Light Wine Harvest USD 36,000 immediately USD 34,200 Event node 0.3 Low acid Wine USD 30,000 Harvest = Decision node = sales mmediately USD 34,200 60 00 - 10 2/4 X - 5 610 WIE DX EX18 LO 100 21:12 gi P W 23.C ) A 2021/09/30(*) TOSHIBA PRTSC PAUSE F10 F1 F12 SYSRQ BREAK F6 F7 F8 F9 3/8 ESC F1 F2 F3 F4 3 % & O PAD a 18 PGUP