1. providethe algorithm to calculate the probably of the expected Critical path(b-d-e-f-g) to be the actual Critical path of the project, using Monte Carlo Simulation in Excel. Then apply the algorithm to this problem and calculate this probability.

Tip: Excel does not have PERT distribution. The algorithm can use Beta distribution function in excel and convert it to PERT distribution using the conversion equations

Either Bulletized algorithm or Flow Chart diagram are acceptable

Most Optimistic Likely Pessimistic Activity Time Time Time Predecessors a 5 7 12 b 8 8 8 2 6 10 a d 12 14 19 a, b e 6 6 12 c, d f 3 12 18 b, e g 6 8 10 f