1. The following is a post incident analysis of a large leakage of pressurized flammable material from an isolated Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG). An immediate ignition may occur, leading to massive local explosion. If the leak does not immediately ignite, it can drift with the wind toward a populated area with large number of ignition-sources that can lead to a delayed ignition that will result with either a fire or an explosion (there is no safe outcome if a delayed ignition occurred). From a historical data when a delayed ignition occurs it will result in either a fire or an explosion. a. Develop an event tree for this sequence of events b. Identify paths for safe dispersion, fire, and explosion within the populated area. c. Using the probabilities below calculate the annual probability of a safe dispersion, fire, and explosion. Event Event Probability 1x10-4 [event/year] Large leakage from LPG storage tank Immediate Ignition 0.10 Wind blows toward populated area 0.15 Delayed ignition 0.2 In a case of a delayed ignition in the populated are a fire (probability of 0.5) may occur or an explosion (probability of 0.5) 1. The following is a post incident analysis of a large leakage of pressurized flammable material from an isolated Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG). An immediate ignition may occur, leading to massive local explosion. If the leak does not immediately ignite, it can drift with the wind toward a populated area with large number of ignition-sources that can lead to a delayed ignition that will result with either a fire or an explosion (there is no safe outcome if a delayed ignition occurred). From a historical data when a delayed ignition occurs it will result in either a fire or an explosion. a. Develop an event tree for this sequence of events b. Identify paths for safe dispersion, fire, and explosion within the populated area. c. Using the probabilities below calculate the annual probability of a safe dispersion, fire, and explosion. Event Event Probability 1x10-4 [event/year] Large leakage from LPG storage tank Immediate Ignition 0.10 Wind blows toward populated area 0.15 Delayed ignition 0.2 In a case of a delayed ignition in the populated are a fire (probability of 0.5) may occur or an explosion (probability of 0.5)