1. What are ultimate losses projected to be for the 2017 policy year, given the current valuation date? a. If paid losses are $3,000,000 for
1. What are ultimate losses projected to be for the 2017 policy year, given the current valuation date?
a. If paid losses are $3,000,000 for the 2017 policy year on December 31, 2020, what is the correct loss reserve?
A. Reported Incurred Losses Months After Inception Date Period 12 Start Months 24 Months 36 Months 48 Months 60 Months 72 Months 84 Months $2,924,473 4,345,367 $2,927,723 01/01/14 01/01/15 01/01/16 01/01/17 01/01/18 01/01/19 01/01/20 $1,497,062 1,620,150 1,713,915 1,607,044 1,556,076 1,515,669 1,295,063 $1,480,000 3,073,710 2,939,571 2,773,626 2,247,799 2,525,635 $2,918,000 4,345,367 3,618,236 $2,611,171 4,028,944 3,079,142 3,084,553 2,604,966 $2,523,272 4,192,322 3,212,427 3,537,042 B. Age-to-Age Factors Months After Inception Date Period 12 to 24 Start Months 24 to 36 Months 36 to 48 Months 48 to 60 Months 60 to 72 Months 72 to 84 Months 84 to 96 Months 1.001 1.000 1.002 1.000 01/01/14 01/01/15 01/01/16 01/01/17 01/01/18 01/01/19 01/01/20 1.156 1.037 1.126 0.989 1.897 1.715 1.726 1.445 1.666 1.764 1.311 1.047 1.112 1.159 0.966 1.041 1.043 1.147 Average 1.573 1.279 1.049 1.106 1.001 1.001 1.000 C. Age-to-Ultimate Factors 12 to Ultimate 24 to Ultimate 36 to Ultimate 48 to Ultimate 60 to Ultimate 72 to Ultimate 84 to Ultimate Cumulative 2.341 1.488 1.164 1.109 1.002 1.001 1.000 A. Reported Incurred Losses Months After Inception Date Period 12 Start Months 24 Months 36 Months 48 Months 60 Months 72 Months 84 Months $2,924,473 4,345,367 $2,927,723 01/01/14 01/01/15 01/01/16 01/01/17 01/01/18 01/01/19 01/01/20 $1,497,062 1,620,150 1,713,915 1,607,044 1,556,076 1,515,669 1,295,063 $1,480,000 3,073,710 2,939,571 2,773,626 2,247,799 2,525,635 $2,918,000 4,345,367 3,618,236 $2,611,171 4,028,944 3,079,142 3,084,553 2,604,966 $2,523,272 4,192,322 3,212,427 3,537,042 B. Age-to-Age Factors Months After Inception Date Period 12 to 24 Start Months 24 to 36 Months 36 to 48 Months 48 to 60 Months 60 to 72 Months 72 to 84 Months 84 to 96 Months 1.001 1.000 1.002 1.000 01/01/14 01/01/15 01/01/16 01/01/17 01/01/18 01/01/19 01/01/20 1.156 1.037 1.126 0.989 1.897 1.715 1.726 1.445 1.666 1.764 1.311 1.047 1.112 1.159 0.966 1.041 1.043 1.147 Average 1.573 1.279 1.049 1.106 1.001 1.001 1.000 C. Age-to-Ultimate Factors 12 to Ultimate 24 to Ultimate 36 to Ultimate 48 to Ultimate 60 to Ultimate 72 to Ultimate 84 to Ultimate Cumulative 2.341 1.488 1.164 1.109 1.002 1.001 1.000
