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1) What do you think are the major risks in this investment? KKRThetDollartGeneraltBuyout IntFebruaryt2007,tDeantB.tNelson,tCEOtoftKKRtCapstone,tatconsultingtgrouptthattworkedtexclusivelytwith KKR'stportfoliotcompanies,thadtjusttfinishedtatmeetingtwithtthetBoardtoftDirectorstoftDollartGeneraltintGoodlettsville,tTennessee.tHetwasteagerttotgettbackttothistofficetintNewtYorktandtstarttfinalizingthistpresentationtto KKR'stmanagementtteamtabouttthistpotentiallytlucrativetLBOtdeal. EventthoughtDollartGeneraltdidtnottquitetfittthetmoldtoftKKR'sttypicaltportfoliotcompany,tNelsontwas confidenttthattthistacquisitiontwouldtbetatsuccess,tgiventthattDollartGeneral'stmanagementtseemedtverytreceptivetandtwelcomingtoftthetidea.tHowever,ttheretwerettwotbigtquestionststilltlingeringtinthistmind:tattwhattprice couldtKKRtacquiretDollartGeneral,tandthowtcouldtittaddtvaluettotthistcompany.tNelsontwastconfidenttthat DollartGeneraltwouldtaccepttatreasonabletprice,tespeciallytconsideringtthettroublestthattitthadtbeentfacingtlately. However,thetneededttotmaketsuretthattittwastantattractivetenoughtdealtfortDollartGeneralttotavoidtthetrisktof thetdealtfallingtintotcompetitors'thands.tHetwastalsotcertaintthattKKRthadtthetexpertisettotimprovetthetoperatingtefficiencytoftthetcompanytandtcouldtexittthistinvestmenttintatfewtyears.tHetjusttneededttotidentifytthetkey driverstfortvaluetcreationtintDollartGeneral. KohlbergtKravistRobertst&tCompanyt(KKR) KohlbergtKravistRobertst&tCompanyt(KKR)twastatprominenttleadertintthetprivatetequitytindustry,tspecializing
1) What do you think are the major risks in this investment?
KKRThe\tDollar\tGeneral\tBuyout In\tFebruary\t2007,\tDean\tB.\tNelson,\tCEO\tof\tKKR\tCapstone,\ta\tconsulting\tgroup\tthat\tworked\texclusively\twith KKR's\tportfolio\tcompanies,\thad\tjust\tfinished\ta\tmeeting\twith\tthe\tBoard\tof\tDirectors\tof\tDollar\tGeneral\tin\tGoodlettsville,\tTennessee.\tHe\twas\teager\tto\tget\tback\tto\this\toffice\tin\tNew\tYork\tand\tstart\tfinalizing\this\tpresentation\tto KKR's\tmanagement\tteam\tabout\tthis\tpotentially\tlucrative\tLBO\tdeal. Even\tthough\tDollar\tGeneral\tdid\tnot\tquite\tfit\tthe\tmold\tof\tKKR's\ttypical\tportfolio\tcompany,\tNelson\twas confident\tthat\tthis\tacquisition\twould\tbe\ta\tsuccess,\tgiven\tthat\tDollar\tGeneral's\tmanagement\tseemed\tvery\treceptive\tand\twelcoming\tof\tthe\tidea.\tHowever,\tthere\twere\ttwo\tbig\tquestions\tstill\tlingering\tin\this\tmind:\tat\twhat\tprice could\tKKR\tacquire\tDollar\tGeneral,\tand\thow\tcould\tit\tadd\tvalue\tto\tthis\tcompany.\tNelson\twas\tconfident\tthat Dollar\tGeneral\twould\taccept\ta\treasonable\tprice,\tespecially\tconsidering\tthe\ttroubles\tthat\tit\thad\tbeen\tfacing\tlately. However,\the\tneeded\tto\tmake\tsure\tthat\tit\twas\tan\tattractive\tenough\tdeal\tfor\tDollar\tGeneral\tto\tavoid\tthe\trisk\tof the\tdeal\tfalling\tinto\tcompetitors'\thands.\tHe\twas\talso\tcertain\tthat\tKKR\thad\tthe\texpertise\tto\timprove\tthe\toperating\tefficiency\tof\tthe\tcompany\tand\tcould\texit\tthis\tinvestment\tin\ta\tfew\tyears.\tHe\tjust\tneeded\tto\tidentify\tthe\tkey drivers\tfor\tvalue\tcreation\tin\tDollar\tGeneral. Kohlberg\tKravis\tRoberts\t&\tCompany\t(KKR) Kohlberg\tKravis\tRoberts\t&\tCompany\t(KKR)\twas\ta\tprominent\tleader\tin\tthe\tprivate\tequity\tindustry,\tspecializing in\tlarge,\tglobal\tbuyout\ttransactions.\tHenry\tR.\tKravis\tand\tGeorge\tR.\tRoberts,\tpreviously\tbuyout\tspecialists\tat\tBear, Stearns\tand\tCo.,\testablished\tthe\tcompany\tin\t1976,\ta\ttime\twhen\tLBO\ttransactions\twere\trelatively\tuncommon. In\t1977,\tKKR\tcompleted\tits\tfirst\ttransaction\twith\tA.J.\tIndustries,\ta\tsmall\tLos\tAngeles-based\tmanufacturer\tof transportation\tand\tmilitary\tproducts\twith\ta\ttotal\tmarket\tcapitalization\tof\t$26\tmillion.\tThis\tinvestment\tyielded profitable\treturns\tafter\teight\tyears.\tMeanwhile,\tKKR's\tLBO\ttransactions\thad\tgrown\texponentially\tby\tthe\tend\tof the\t1970s\tand\tinto\tthe\t1980s.\tThat\tdecade\twas\trich\tin\tfront-page\tnews\tcovering\tLBOs,\tmany\tof\twhich\tfeatured KKR.\tOver\tthe\tyears,\tthe\tcompany\tadded\tsome\tprominent\tcompanies\tto\tits\tportfolio,\tsuch\tas\tSafeway\tgrocery stores,\tDuracell\tbatteries,\tand\tRJR\tNabisco.\tIts\tstrategy\tdeveloped\tfrom\tfocusing\ton\tsound\tprivate\tequity\tfinancing\tand\trestructuring\tbusiness,\tto\tconcentrating\ton\tadding\tvalue\tthrough\toperational\timprovements\tof\ttarget companies.1 KKR\thad\toperations\tin\tthe\tU.S.,\tEurope,\tAsia,\tand\tAustralia.\tPivotal\ttransactions,\tsuch\tas\tthe\tRJR\tNabisco deal\tin\t1989,\tmade\tKKR\tworld\tfamous\tand\ta\tleader\tin\tits\tclass.\tThe\tcompany\tspecialized\tin\tnine\tindustries: chemicals,\tconsumer\tproducts,\tenergy,\tfinancial\tservices,\thealthcare,\tindustrial,\tmedia\tand\tcommunications, retail,\tand\ttechnology.2 2007\twas\tone\tof\tthe\tbest\tyears\tfor\tKKR.\tThe\tcompany\ttook\tadvantage\tof\tthe\tlow\tinterest\tcost\tand\tfavorable\teconomic\tenvironments\tby\tplanning\tseveral\tmega,\tlandmark,\tbuyout\tdeals\tthat\tresembled\tthose\tin\tthe\tglory days\tof\tthe\t1980s.\tFor\texample,\tit\tplanned\tto\ttake\tTexas\tpower\tutility\tcompany\tTXU\t(now\tcalled\tEnergy\tFuture Holdings)\tprivate,\ta\ttransaction\tthat\twould\tprove\tto\tbe\tthe\tlargest\tbuyout\tin\thistory\tat\tthat\ttime.\tThe\tlargest www.kkr.com. 2 Hamilton,\tTaylor.\t\"Private\tEquity,\tHedge\tFunds\tand\tInvestment\tVehicles\tin\tthe\tUS.\"\tIBIS\tWorld\t(2011):\tn.\tpag.\tWeb. July\t7,\t2011. 1 leveraged\tbuyout\tdeal\tin\tEurope\twas\talso\taccomplished with\tthe\tacquisition\tof\tAlliance\tBoots.\tExhibit\t1\tshows KKR's\tLBO\ttransactions\tfrom\t2004-2007. Dollar\tGeneral's\tCompany\tBackground Exhibit\t1.\tKKR's\tRecent\tTransactions Recent\tTransactions Maxeda Avago\tTechnologies\tInc Masonite NXP Capmark TDS\tA/S HCA Biomet Alliance\tBoots First\tData Energy\tFuture\tHoldings\t(TXU) Year\tValue\t(in\tBN) 20042.50 2005$2.80 2005$3.10 20069.00 2006$\t16.80 \t12.402006 2006$\t33.00 2007$\t11.60 2007\t12.40 2007$\t29.50 2007$\t48.40 Dollar\tGeneral\tis\ta\tsmall-box\tretail\tdiscount\tstore\tselling general\tmerchandise\tand\tseasonal\tproducts\tin\tthe\tUnited States.\tIt\twas\toriginally\tnamed\tJ.L.\tTurner\t&\tSon\tInc., founded\tin\t1939\tby\tJ.\tL.\tTurner\tand\tCal\tTurner,\tSr.\tin Scottsville,\tKentucky.\tThe\tcompany\twas\tconverted\tto\tthe first\tdollar\tstore\tin\t1955,\twith\tno\titem\tpriced\tover\t$1. After\tthe\tidea\tcaught\ton,\tthe\tcompany\tconverted\tmany of\tits\tstores\tto\tdollar\tstores.\tSales\tgrew\trapidly,\tand\tthe\tSource:\tkkr.com. company\tearned\tmore\tthan\t$1\tmillion\tin\tnet\tprofits\tby 1967.\tIn\t1968,\tthe\tcompany\tchanged\tits\tname\tto\tDollar\tGeneral\tand\tbecame\ta\tpublicly\ttraded\tcompany.\tIt\twas reincorporated\tas\ta\tTennessee\tcorporation\tand\theadquartered\tin\tGoodlettsville,\tTennessee. As\tof\tMarch\t2,\t2007,\tDollar\tGeneral\toperated\t8,260\tstores\tin\t35\tstates,\tprimarily\tin\tthe\tsouthern,\tsouthwestern,\tMidwestern,\tand\teastern\tUnited\tStates.\tThe\tstores\twere\tmainly\tsmall\tneighborhood\tstores\twith\tmerchandise made\tup\tof\tmost\tpeople's\tbasic\tnecessities.\tIt\toffered\ta\twide\tvariety\tof\tprivate\tand\tnational\tbranded\titems\tat heavily\tdiscounted\tprices,\tabout\t30%\tof\twhich\twere\tpriced\tunder\t$1.\tThe\tmerchandise\tcould\tbe\tclassified\tinto four\tcategories: Highly\tConsumable:\tpaper,\tcleaning\tsupplies,\thealth\tand\tbeauty\tproducts,\tpet\tsupplies,\tand\tfood; Seasonal\tGoods:\tdecorations,\ttoys,\tbatteries,\thome\toffice\tsupplies,\tsmall\telectronics,\tgardening\tsupplies; Home\tProducts:\tkitchen\tsupplies,\tcookware,\tand\tsmall\tappliances; Basic\tClothing:\tclothes\tand\tshoes\tfor\tinfants,\ttoddlers,\tgirls,\tboys,\twomen,\tand\tmen. Exhibit\t2.\tNumber\tof\tDollar\tGeneral\tStores\tin\tEach\tState\tas\tof\tMarch\t2,\t2007 Source:\tDollar\tGeneral\t2006\t10-K\treport. Percent\tsales\tin\teach\tcategory\tfor\tyears\t2004-2006\tare\tillustrated\tin\tExhibit\t3. Exhibit\t3.\tPercent\tSales\tfor\tEach\tCategory\tof\tMerchandise Carried\tin\tDollar\tGeneral\tStores Source:\tDollar\tGeneral\t2006\t10-K\treport. Dollar\tGeneral\twas\ta\tmajor\tplayer\tin\tthe\tdollar\tand\tvariety\tstores\tindustry,\tholding\troughly\ta\tquarter\tof\tthe market\tshare.\tThe\trevenue\tfor\tthe\tindustry\twas\tabout\t$55bn,\twith\tan\tannual\tgrowth\trate\tof\t3.4%.3\tThis\tindustry was\tdriven\tby\tkey\tfactors\tsuch\tas\tper\tcapita\tdisposable\tincome,\tpoverty\tlevel,\tcompetition\tfrom\tbig-box\tplayers such\tas\tWalmart,\tnational\tunemployment\trate,\tand\ttime\tspent\ton\tleisure\tand\tsports.\tThe\tdollar\tstore\tindustry targeted\tlow\tto\tmiddle\tincome\thousehold\tconsumers\tseeking\tvalue-oriented\tproducts,\twith\tstores\tlocated\tprimarily\tin\tinner\tcities\tand\trural\tareas.\tAccording\tto\tthe\tIBIS\tWorld\tReport,\tthe\tsoutheast\tregion,\ta\tregion\twith the\tlowest\taverage\tper\tcapita\tpersonal\tincome\tin\tthe\tUnited\tStates,\taccounted\tfor\t35%\tof\tthe\tindustry\testablishment.\tOther\tareas\twith\ta\thigh\tconcentration\tof\tdollar\tstores\tincluded\tthe\tGreat\tLakes,\tthe\tMid-Atlantic\tregion, and\tthe\tSouthwest.\tBig\tLots,\tFamily\tDollar,\tand\tDollar\tTree\twere\tthe\tkey\tplayers\tin\tthe\tindustry\tcompeting with\tDollar\tGeneral.\tCompetition\tand\tthreats\talso\tcame\tfrom\tbig-box\tstores\tsuch\tas\tTarget\tand\tWalmart,\teven though\tdollar\tstores\thad\tthe\tcompetitive\tadvantage\tof\tbeing\tsmall\tand\tconveniently\tlocated\tfor\teasy\taccess\tand quick\tshopping.\tIn\t2007,\ta\tfavorable\teconomic\tenvironment\treduced\tthe\tdemand\tfor\tdollar\tstores,\tas\thouseholds turned\tto\tdepartment\tstores\tand\tspecialty\tstores\tto\tfulfill\ttheir\tshopping\tneeds. The\tU.S.\tLBO\tIndustry Private\tequity\tfirms\tspecializing\tin\tleveraged\tbuyouts\tacquire\tprivate\tor\tpublicly\ttraded\tcompanies\twith\ta\thigh percentage\tof\tdebt,\tranging\tfrom\t40%-80%\tof\ttotal\tcapital.4\tThis\tallows\tprivate\tequity\tfirms\tto\tacquire\tcompanies\twithout\tcommitting\ta\tlarge\tportion\tof\ttheir\town\tcapital.\tIt\talso\tmakes\tthe\tpotential\treturn\tvery\tattractive as\tleverage\tmagnifies\tequity\treturn.\tThe\tdebt\tinvolved\tin\tLBOs\tcan\tbe\traised\tthrough\tpublic\tor\tprivate\tmarkets. In\tpublic\tmarkets,\tdebt\tfinancing\tis\ttypically\tin\tthe\tform\tof\ta\tjunk\tbond,\ta\thigh-risk\tand\thigh-yield\tdebt\tinstrument.\tIn\tprivate\tmarkets,\tdebt\tis\traised\tthrough\tbank\tloans,\twith\tvarying\tcombinations\tof\tsenior,\tjunior,\tand mezzanine\tfinancing\tat\tdifferent\tinterest\trates\tand\tterms\tof\trepayment.\tThe\tcapital\traised\twill\tthen\tbe\tused\tto pay\tselling\tshareholders\tand\tpay\toff\texisting\tdebt.\tA\ttypical\tLBO\tstructure\tcan\tbe\tseen\tin\tExhibit\t4. Since\tleverage\tis\tcritical\tin\tthe\tsuccess\tof\tan\tLBO,\tit\tis\timportant\tthat\tthe\ttarget\tcompany\thave\ttangible assets\tthat\tcan\tbe\tused\tas\tcollateral\tagainst\tthe\tloans\ttaken\tout.\tIf\ta\tpublicly\ttraded\tfirm\twere\tacquired,\tit\twould be\ttaken\tprivate\tfirst\tso\tthat\toperational\timprovements\tcould\tbe\tcarried\tout\tsmoothly.\tThe\tprevious\tmanagement team\tof\tthe\ttarget\tfirm\tis\tsometimes\tretained\tto\tcontinue\trunning\tthe\tcompany.\tOther\ttimes,\ta\tnew\tmanagement Shim,\tJanet.\t\"IBIS\tWorld\tIndustry\tReport\t45299,\tDollar\tand\tVariety\tStores\tin\tthe\tUS.\"\tIBIS\tWorld\t(2011):\tn.\tpag.\tWeb. July\t4,\t2011. 4The\tlevel\tof\tdebt\twas\tsometimes\tas\thigh\tas\t95%\tof\tcapital\tin\tthe\t1980s. 3 Exhibit\t4.\tA\tTypical\tPrivate\tEquity\tInvestment\tStructure team\tis\tbrought\tin.\tIn\tan\tLBO,\tcash\tflows\tfrom\tthe\ttarget\tcompany's\toperations\tare\ttypically\tused\tto\tpay\tdown the\tdebt.\tAfter\toperational\timprovement\tis\tachieved,\tthe\tprivate\tequity\tfirm\twill\texit\tits\tinvestment\tby\tselling off\teither\tpart\tof\tor\tthe\tentire\tcompany\tfor\ta\tprofit.\tIt\tcan\talso\texit\tby\ttaking\tthe\tcompany\tpublic. The\t1980s\twere\ttimes\tof\tunprecedented\tgrowth\tfor\tthe\tLBO\tindustry.\tTransactions\tduring\tthis\ttime increased\tfrom\t$5\tbillion\tin\t1983\tto\t$77\tbillion\tin\t1989.\tFrom\t1986\tto\t1989,\tLBOs\taccounted\tfor\t20%\tof the\ttotal\tdollar\tvalue\tof\tcompleted\tM&As.\tThese\tLBO\ttransactions\ttypically\ttargeted\tcompanies\tin\tthe\tretail, textiles,\tfood\tprocessing,\tapparel,\tand\tsoft\tdrink\tindustries,\tsome\twith\tas\tlittle\tas\t10%\tof\tequity\tcontributed by\tthe\tprivate\tequity\tfirms.\tAccording\tto\ta\tstudy\tby\tSteven\tKaplan,\tthe\thighly\tleveraged\ttransactions\thad\tsome positive\teffect\ton\tU.S.\tcorporations.5\tThe\tleverage\timposed\tstrong\tdiscipline\ton\tthe\tbuyout\tmanagement.\tIt\talso provided\tmanagement\twith\tsubstantial\tequity\tstakes\tin\ttheir\tcompanies\tto\tincentivize\tthem,\ta\tphenomenon\tnot commonly\tseen\tin\tthe\tdecade\tbefore.\tKaplan\tshowed\tthat\tCEOs\tof\tLBOs\tincreased\ttheir\townership\tstake\tfrom 1.6%\tpre-LBO\tto\t6.4%\tpost-LBO.\tPrivate\tequity\tfirms\tusually\tmonitored\tthe\tprogress\tof\ttheir\tinvestment\tin these\tcompanies\tclosely\tby\thaving\ta\tsmall\tbut\thighly\tinvolved\tboard\tof\tdirectors. The\thigh\tleverage,\thowever,\tdid\tbring\tsome\tcompanies\tto\tdefault.\tRoughly\tone-third\tof\tthe\tLBOs\tcompleted defaulted\ton\ttheir\tdebt,\tincreasing\tthe\tpublic\tcriticism\tand\tconsequent\tregulatory\taction\tagainst\tsuch\thighly leveraged\ttransactions.\tKaplan\tdocumented\tthat\tthe\tLBO\tmarket\teventually\tgot\toverheated,\twhich\tbrought\tthe total\tvolume\tcrashing\tto\tless\tthan\t$6.8\tbillion\tin\tthe\tearly1990s.\tThe\tconclusion\tfrom\tthis\tperiod\twas\tthat\thigh leverage\twas\textremely\trisky,\tand\tsuch\tLBO\ttransactions\twere\tunlikely\tto\tbe\trepeated\tin\tthe\tfollowing\tdecades. The1990s\twere\tcharacterized\tby\ta\tslowing\teconomy\tand\tincreased\tanti-takeover\tlegislation\tand\tregulations. There\twas\talso\ta\tcredit\tcrunch\tthat\tled\tto\tthe\tshrinkage\tof\tthe\thigh-yield\tjunk\tbond\tprimary\tmarkets.\tCoupled with\tthe\teffects\tof\tunsound\tLBO\ttransactions\tin\tthe\tlate1980s,\tthere\twas\ta\tdramatic\tdrop\tin\tLBO\tactivities\tin this\tdecade.\tIt\twas\tnot\tuntil\tthe\tnext\tdecade\tthat\twe\tsaw\tanother\tboom\tera\tin\tthis\tindustry. From\t2003-2007,\tprivate\tequity\texperienced\tanother\trebirth.\tMarket\tconditions\timproved,\tproviding\ta fertile\tground\tfor\tdeals\tto\tbecome\tbigger\tthan\tever.\tThe\tvalue\tof\tglobal-leveraged\tbuyout\tactivity\tincreased\tby\ta compound\trate\tof\t32.5%\tduring\tthis\ttime\tperiod.\tFundraising\tin\tthe\tU.S.\tincreased\tfrom\t$33\tbillion\tin\t2003 Kaplan,\tSteven\tN.\t\"The\tEvolution\tof\tU.S.\tCorporate\tGovernance:\tWe\tAre\tAll\tHenry\tKravis\tNow.\"\t(1997):\tn.\tpag.\tWeb. July\t4,\t2011.\tStep by Step Solution
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