Question
1) You are considering purchasing an apartment complex. Before deciding, you would like to do a risk analysis of the situation to assess whether or
1) You are considering purchasing an apartment complex. Before deciding, you would like to do a risk analysis of the situation to assess whether or not the investment is a good idea for you. The complex has 40 units. Historical data indicate that the number of units rented in a given month is distributed uniformly between 30 and 40 units. The rent per unit, which you are not likely to change since demand is very price sensitive, is $600 per month. Monthly expenses for the entire complex seem to be normally distributed with mean $17,000 and standard deviation $1,500. a. Develop an @RISK simulation model for 1,000 months. b. According to your simulation results what is the expected monthly profit? b. b. According to your simulation results what is the expected monthly profit? c. c. According to the simulation results what is the probability of making a profit in any given month? d. d. Suppose your debt payments on this complex will be $2,400 per month. Would you take this investment? Defend your decision using the simulation output data. e. e. How many trials would you need to estimate mean profit within $50 for a 95 percent confidence level?
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