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10 The consultant has provided probability assessments of 0.10,0.60, and 0.30 for the worst-case, base-case, and best-case scenarios, respectively. including the consultant's fee, are included.
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The consultant has provided probability assessments of 0.10,0.60, and 0.30 for the worst-case, base-case, and best-case scenarios, respectively. including the consultant's fee, are included. (a) What decision should the town make using the expected value approach? EV(Small) EV(Medium) EV(Large) The best decision is to build a | community center. (b) Compute the expected value of perfect information. EVPI = Do you think it would be worth trying to obtain additional information concerning which scenario is likely to occur? The town should consider additional information about the likelihood of the three scenarios. The town should not consider additional information about the likelihood of the three scenarios. EV(Small) EV(Medium) EV(Large) What effect, if any, would these changes have on the decision recommendation? The best decision is to build a -- -Select--- community center. best-case scenario to 0.4 . (Remember to subtract the cost of the promotional campaign from the expected value.) EV(Small) EV(Medium) EV(Large) The best decision is to build a community center. Compared to the analysis in part (c), is this a good investment? It is not a good investment as the risk of loss is not eliminated. It is a good investment as the risk of loss is not eliminated. It is a good investment as the risk of loss is eliminated. It is not a good investment as the risk of loss is eliminated
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