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11. You work for a U.S.-based company that conducts most of its international business in India and estimate net cash flows next month from
11. You work for a U.S.-based company that conducts most of its international business in India and estimate net cash flows next month from India will be $1,000,000USD (assuming that you convert from Indian rupees to USD at the current spot rate). You estimate that the standard deviation of monthly percentage changes of the Indian rupees (INR) is 3% and that the INR will depreciate by 2% against the U.S. dollar over the next month. Use the value at risk (VaR) method based on a 95% confidence interval to estimate your company's maximum expected loss due to its transaction exposure to the INR over the next month both in percentage terms and in dollar terms.
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