11:06 all - 0 Done Forecasting Project Summer202... Based on the table provided, R is 90% due to the four variables that we used which were Period, AIP, DIFF, and ADV. The significance F is 1.08345E-13 which is less than one percent, representing an effective regression model. The more significant variable in the P-Value was Period, followed by price difference, average industry price, and advertising. 13- Perform multiple linear regression analysis with Period, DIFF, and ADV as independent variables. Write the equation and find MAD. Which variable is the most significant predictor of demand? Rank the independent variables based on their degree of contribution to the model. Observe significant F, R-squared, and p-values and explain. SUMMARY OUTPUT Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.94635889 R Square 0.89559515 Adjusted R Squ 0.88479465 Standard Error 0.45664435 Observations 33 ANOVA MS Significance F Regression 3 51.8734633 17.2911544 82.9216259 2.47E-14 Residual 29 6.04719786 0.20852406 Total 32 57.9206612 Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0% Intercept 8.29430303 0.64658278 12.8279058 1.76E-13 6.971892754 9.6167133 6.97189275 9.6167133 Period 0.11004288 0.0148894 7.39068385 3.83E-08 0.07959063 0.14049513 0.07959063 0.14049513 Diff 0.32347411 0.25017889 1.29297126 0.20622715 -0.18819916 0.83514739 0.1881992 0.83514739 ADV 0.13246728 0.11296262 1.17266475 0.25047322 -0.09856721 0.36350177 -0.0985672 0.36350177 DEMAND = 8.294 + .110(Period) + .323(Diff) + .132(ADV) Interpretations: With the Intercept having the lowest P-value, it is the most significant factor in the model followed by Period. This model is very accurate with a R Squared of .895 which means almost 90% accuracy. This is a good model because Sign very low at 2.47314E-14. 14- Use the model obtained in parts 13 and make forecasts for the following months. Make sure to seasonalize final forecasts. DEMAND = 8.294 + .110(Period) + .323(Diff) +.132(ADV) Period Price AIP ADV Aug. 2021 $7.30 $7.65 $11.7 Sep. 2021 $7.45 $7.90 $11.9 Oct. 2021 $7.50 $7.95 $12.3 15- Provide a paragraph of conclusion of your analysis. 16- Submission must include a Word File and Excel file of analysis. All team members must work on all parts of the project individually and compare results for accuracy and team leader will upload files. Grading Criteria Completeness/Correctness 70% Quality of Interpretations/Analysis 20% General Quality of Report/graphs/writing 10%
