Question
1,205 persons, who were accidentally exposed to a large-dose gamma-radiation were followed for a year and their mortality experience was recorded monthly. Some were lost
1,205 persons, who were accidentally exposed to a large-dose gamma-radiation were followed for a year and their mortality experience was recorded monthly. Some were lost to follow-up with whereabouts and outcome of people are not known. The table below are the monthly-recorded deaths and "withdrawals".
Month (measured at end of month) | Deaths | Withdrawals (Lost to Follow-up) |
December, 2019 | 10 | 5 |
January, 2020 | 15 | 7 |
February, 2020 | 23 | 11 |
March, 2020 | 27 | 22 |
April, 2020 | 35 | 4 |
May, 2020 | 42 | 6 |
June, 2020 | 21 | 18 |
July, 2020 | 24 | 3 |
August, 2020 | 22 | 6 |
September, 2020 | 10 | 3 |
October, 2020 | 7 | 15 |
November, 2020 | 2 | 7 |
Create a table for the data in a proper format and answer the following questions based on your calculations:
- What was the probability of dying during the month of August, 2020?
- What was the probability of surviving until the end of October, 2020?
- Which month exhibited the highest levels of survival (probability of surviving the month)?
- Please draw a survival curve for these data (using the cumulative survival for each month).
- The management of the military installation where this leak occurred think that it is too expensive to keep following these people; the risk of death has become predictable, if not downright low. Do you agree? If so, why? If not, how might you convince them to keep funding the study?
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