1.Download the "Quarterly GDP Data by State" Excel file from the class D2L site.Find your name in the table below.You will use the data from that state for this problem (you may delete the other columns from the Excel file).

a.Create the following forecasts: a 4-period moving average forecast, an exponential smoothing forecast with alpha=0.2, and a linear trend forecast for your data.

b.Calculate the MSE and MAD for each.

c.Plot the original series, and each of the forecasts.

d.Create forecasts for 2017 Q1, 2017 Q2, 2017 Q3 and 2017 Q4 using each of these three techniques.If you had to choose one of these, which would you choose and why?

e.Given your data, and this time period, would you prefer to try some other type of forecast, or modify the data in some way?(You must explain your answer for full credit.)

THIS IS NOT MINE, I merely want to learn how to complete this problem. I have different numbers but needs a guide.

Gross domestic product (GDP) by state (millions of current dollars) Levels Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Area Alabama

2005:Q1 153332 2005:Q2 155940 2005:Q3 157437 2005:Q4 160293 2006:Q1 161934 2006:Q2 163974 2006:Q3 165470 2006:Q4 166495 2007:Q1 166821 2007:Q2 169261 2007:Q3 171456 2007:Q4 172156 2008:Q1 171941 2008:Q2 174068 2008:Q3 174268 2008:Q4 170307 2009:Q1 168708 2009:Q2 167954 2009:Q3 168176 2009:Q4 168420 2010:Q1 170249 2010:Q2 173562 2010:Q3 177097 2010:Q4 177933 2011:Q1 176898 2011:Q2 179679 2011:Q3 181916 2011:Q4 184166 2012:Q1 185386 2012:Q2 187043 2012:Q3 185204 2012:Q4 185881 2013:Q1 189436 2013:Q2 189037 2013:Q3 191125 2013:Q4 191678 2014:Q1 190165 2014:Q2 193317 2014:Q3 196948 2014:Q4 197186 2015:Q1 196820 2015:Q2 199677 2015:Q3 201498 2015:Q4 201926 2016:Q1 202298 2016:Q2 204232 2016:Q3 205307 2016:Q4 207608