1.Problem 1

The following data describe the monthly volume for an urban courier service.Data are in thousands of pieces handled.

a.Calculate both the 3-month and 5-month simple moving average (SMA) forecast for this data within the data table using Excel formulas.Select the appropriate starting month for each.

b.Calculate the mean error for both the 3-month and 5-month SMA forecasts within the table below.

c.Select the best forecast based upon mean error.Enter choice of best forecast and reason for its choice below.

Best forecast: (Enter your recommendation here)

Why? (Enter your explanation here)

Year Month Monthly Volume 3-month SMA Error 5-month SMA Error

2017 Jan 4.5

Feb 4.7

Mar 4.7

Apr 5

May 5

Jun 4.4

Jul 4.7

Aug 4.9

Sep 4.6

Oct 5.4

Nov 4.8

Dec 5.2

2018 Jan 5.4

Feb 4.9

Mar 5.3

Apr 5.6

May 5.4

Jun 5.4

Jul 5.5

Aug 5.4

Sep 5.7

Oct 6.3

Nov 5.3

Dec 6.3

2019 Jan 5.8

Feb 5.8

Mar 6.6

Apr 6.5

May 6.2

Jun 6.7

Jul 6.7

Aug 6.7

Sep 6.9

Oct 7.4

Nov 6.6

Dec 7.4

Mean error calculations: