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1.Your friend agrees to pay you $1,000 if Biden wins re-election exactly 4 years from today. You agree to pay $2,500 if he does not

1.Your friend agrees to pay you $1,000 if Biden wins re-election exactly 4 years from today. You agree to pay $2,500 if he does not win. r=20%. Assume that the bet is fair, and neither of you requires payment today to incentivize you to make the bet. What must be the probability that Biden wins re-election?

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