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2. [40%] A growing city has installed a monorail system connecting the down- town to its international airport. It has been tracking daily monorail passenger
2. [40%] A growing city has installed a monorail system connecting the down- town to its international airport. It has been tracking daily monorail passenger load for the last 5 years. The monorail operates 7 days per week, 52 weeks per year. The data containing the daily passenger load for each week is in file BA3653M3Monorail.xlsx, accompanying this midterm. (a) Calculate the total number of passengers per week for each week in the data. Using this total, obtain the trend projection with regression that models the monorail passenger load growth (on a weekly basis). (b) Is a trendline appropriate for this situation? Calculate the coefficient of determination to show that a trendline is appropriate. (c) Daily passenger usage varies during the week. Use the seasonal index method to create a model that can predict the daily passenger load for any given week. (d) The city considers that any passenger load larger than 50,000 passen- gers per week will require the expansion of the monorail network. Esti- mate approximately how many weeks it will take for this situation to be reached given the current level of passenger load growth. (e) Engineers estimate that it will take 3 years to complete the monorail ex- pansion. Calculate what the passenger load will be 3 years (153 weeks) after the expansion. Obtain the passenger load for the busiest day on that week. (f) A daily usage larger than 10,000 passengers/day will overwhelm the monorail and cause a bottleneck. Will the current plan (begin expansion at 50,000 passengers/week) cause a bottleneck? Is your recommendation that the plan be followed, or should it be revised? 2. [40%] A growing city has installed a monorail system connecting the down- town to its international airport. It has been tracking daily monorail passenger load for the last 5 years. The monorail operates 7 days per week, 52 weeks per year. The data containing the daily passenger load for each week is in file BA3653M3Monorail.xlsx, accompanying this midterm. (a) Calculate the total number of passengers per week for each week in the data. Using this total, obtain the trend projection with regression that models the monorail passenger load growth (on a weekly basis). (b) Is a trendline appropriate for this situation? Calculate the coefficient of determination to show that a trendline is appropriate. (c) Daily passenger usage varies during the week. Use the seasonal index method to create a model that can predict the daily passenger load for any given week. (d) The city considers that any passenger load larger than 50,000 passen- gers per week will require the expansion of the monorail network. Esti- mate approximately how many weeks it will take for this situation to be reached given the current level of passenger load growth. (e) Engineers estimate that it will take 3 years to complete the monorail ex- pansion. Calculate what the passenger load will be 3 years (153 weeks) after the expansion. Obtain the passenger load for the busiest day on that week. (f) A daily usage larger than 10,000 passengers/day will overwhelm the monorail and cause a bottleneck. Will the current plan (begin expansion at 50,000 passengers/week) cause a bottleneck? Is your recommendation that the plan be followed, or should it be revised
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