2. Adrienne is an investor who observes two quarters of performance by Bernice, a mutual-fund manager. Each quarter Bernice has probability p of beating the market and probability 1-p of failing to beat the market. The probability p is either 0, 1/2 or 1, depending on whether Bernice is, respectively, a bad, mediocre or good fund manager. Bernice's performance is independent from one quarter to the next. Hence, Bernice's performance can be correctly modelled as draws with replacement from an urn with 2 balls, where a proportion p of the balls correspond to good performance and a proportion 1 -p of the balls correspond to bad performance. Adrienne, however, incorrectly 'thinks' the balls are being drawn without replacement. (a) Identify which heuristic this model is intended to capture, and describe this heuristic in one sentence. (b) Suppose for now that Adrienne knows for sure that p = 1/2 (that is, Bernice is a mediocre fund manager) and she has just observed one good quarter's performance by Bernice. What is her prediction about Bernice's performance in the next quarter? Explain your