2. Ahmad, the president of Jeddah Waterpower company, was worried about the possibility of a takeover attempt and the fact that the number of common shareholders has been decreasing since 1983. Suppose he instructed you to study the number of common shareholders since 1968 and be prepared to compute a forecast for 1996. You decide to investigate three potential predictor variables: earnings per share (common), dividends per share (common), and payout ratio. You collect the data from 1968 to 1995, as shown in Table below.

a. Apply Artificial neural networks, decide for the type of network, and a neuro-fuzzy approach to develop a small expert system.

b. Show the details of training testing and validation process vs. mean square error

c. Estimate the training outcomes using random input data for the period of 1968 and 199, analyse the Mean Average Percentage Deviation

d. Analyse the networks error, choose the best model

Payout ratio, X3 Year 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 Common shareholder, Y 26,472 28,770 29,681 30,481 30,111 31,052 30,845 32,012 32,846 32,909 34,593 34,359 36,161 38,892 46,278 47,672 45,462 45,599 41,368 38,686 37,072 36,968 34,348 34,058 34,375 33,968 34,120 33,138 Earnings per share, $, Xi 1.68 1.7 1.8 1.86 1.96 2.02 2.11 2.42 2.79 2.38 2.95 2.78 2.33 3.29 3.17 3.02 2.46 3.03 2.06 2.31 2.54 2.7 3.46 2.68 2.74 2.88 2.56 2.82 Dividends per share, $, X2 1.21 1.28 1.32 1.36 1.39 1.44 1.49 1.53 1.65 1.76 1.94 2.08 2.16 2.28 2.4 2.48 2.48 2.48 2.48 2.48 2.48 2.48 2.48 2.48 2.48 2.48 2.48 2.48 Payout ratio, X3 Year 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 Common shareholder, Y 26,472 28,770 29,681 30,481 30,111 31,052 30,845 32,012 32,846 32,909 34,593 34,359 36,161 38,892 46,278 47,672 45,462 45,599 41,368 38,686 37,072 36,968 34,348 34,058 34,375 33,968 34,120 33,138 Earnings per share, $, Xi 1.68 1.7 1.8 1.86 1.96 2.02 2.11 2.42 2.79 2.38 2.95 2.78 2.33 3.29 3.17 3.02 2.46 3.03 2.06 2.31 2.54 2.7 3.46 2.68 2.74 2.88 2.56 2.82 Dividends per share, $, X2 1.21 1.28 1.32 1.36 1.39 1.44 1.49 1.53 1.65 1.76 1.94 2.08 2.16 2.28 2.4 2.48 2.48 2.48 2.48 2.48 2.48 2.48 2.48 2.48 2.48 2.48 2.48 2.48