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2. Consider the following project (Project 1) in Novartis' portfolio, a project in the pre-clinical phase, part of the Oncology therapeutic area. Project 1 Phase

2. Consider the following project ("Project 1") in Novartis' portfolio, a project in the pre-clinical phase, part of the Oncology therapeutic area. Project 1 Phase Launch Year Pre-Clinical 2009 Probability of Technical Success 5% Net Sales (if success) A $4,753 million Pre-launch costs (including R&D cost) $152 million (over)

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