#2. Exponential Smoothing Models

#2.1 Find the exponential smoothing forecasts for Total Liabilities for a = 0.4, a = 0.5, and a = 0.6 for the third period of the fourth year.

a = 0.4 model: a = 0.5 model: a = 0.6 model:

#2.2 The MSE best of these three models is the a = model

because

CEMEX S.A.B. de C.V. and subsidiaries
Quarterly Balance Sheets under IFRS
in thousands of U.S. dollars
	Year 1				Year 2				Year 3				Year 4
	1Q	2Q	3Q	4Q	1Q	2Q	3Q	4Q	1Q	2Q	3Q	4Q	1Q	2Q	3Q	4Q
Total assets	39,612,339	38,397,127	39,043,563	37,260,277	37,274,044	36,583,446	36,974,388	38,017,604	37,846,044	37,713,343	36,967,966	34,936,289	34,424,512	33,998,601
Cash and cash equivalents	1,008,067	625,081	785,237	971,028	817,055	746,281	895,371	1,162,949	844,464	737,320	1,003,757	854,096	938,840	491,656
Trade receivables less allowance for doubtful accounts	2,061,938	2,169,761	2,182,687	1,844,177	1,940,064	2,178,453	2,177,678	1,990,129	2,141,181	2,169,115	2,186,922	1,828,622	1,917,426	2,017,652
Other accounts receivable	470,794	466,507	499,675	485,563	512,212	492,416	548,096	537,155	506,442	595,427	549,615	300,909	389,430	378,663
Inventories, net	1,317,767	1,304,872	1,288,113	1,282,883	1,309,884	1,250,166	1,276,893	1,301,565	1,340,436	1,360,355	1,322,181	1,226,187	1,226,236	1,192,132
Other current assets	400,955	364,590	316,330	342,103	439,472	400,579	325,180	299,264	371,579	332,926	280,462	604,136	422,456	379,941
Current assets	5,259,522	4,930,810	5,072,043	4,925,754	5,018,686	5,067,896	5,223,218	5,291,062	5,204,102	5,195,142	5,342,937	4,813,950	4,894,386	4,460,044
Property, machinery and equipment, net	17,153,366	16,586,924	16,563,208	16,581,625	16,250,296	15,710,860	15,711,679	15,763,752	15,586,579	15,576,321	14,859,755	13,767,183	13,371,249	13,339,772
Other assets	17,199,452	16,879,393	17,408,311	15,752,898	16,005,062	15,804,691	16,039,491	16,962,789	17,055,363	16,941,880	16,765,274	16,355,156	16,158,876	16,198,785
Total liabilities	27,387,710	26,446,783	26,852,425	25,149,388	24,972,252	24,735,001	25,096,945	26,652,253	26,402,819	26,044,129	25,621,513	24,883,959	24,860,270	24,060,390
Current liabilities	4,530,850	4,015,209	4,250,027	4,186,242	4,389,598	4,425,033	4,616,162	4,564,156	5,309,781	4,733,404	4,951,594	5,442,645	5,892,038	4,433,533
Long-term liabilities	15,027,900	14,850,640	14,807,684	13,816,287	13,789,313	13,807,740	13,816,289	14,331,077	14,003,437	14,443,155	13,844,308	12,980,122	13,402,452	13,868,432
Other liabilities	7,828,960	7,580,934	7,794,713	7,146,858	6,793,341	6,502,228	6,664,494	7,757,020	7,089,600	6,867,570	6,825,611	6,461,191	5,565,780	5,758,424
Total stockholders' equity	12,224,630	11,950,344	12,191,138	12,110,890	12,301,791	11,848,445	11,877,443	11,365,351	11,443,225	11,669,214	11,346,453	10,052,330	9,564,242	9,938,211
Non-controlling interest and perpetual instruments	725,615	698,499	694,778	1,127,454	1,159,773	1,086,848	1,126,346	1,144,742	1,162,183	1,188,786	1,192,531	1,157,936	1,138,395	1,172,404
Total controlling interest	11,499,015	11,251,845	11,496,360	10,983,436	11,142,019	10,761,598	10,751,097	10,220,609	10,281,043	10,480,428	10,153,922	8,894,394	8,425,846	8,765,807