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2. Forecast Cisco's sales, NOPAT, and NOA for years 2017 through 2020 and the terminal period using the following assumptions Note, the forecasted sales growth
2. Forecast Cisco's sales, NOPAT, and NOA for years 2017 through 2020 and the terminal period using the following assumptions Note, the forecasted sales growth rates are available in this case. Assume a discount rate (WACC) of 10%, common shares outstanding of 5,029 million, and net nonoperating obligations (NNO) of $(37,113) million (NNO is negative which means that Cisco has net nonoperating investments).
Sales growth 2017 8% |
Sales growth 2018 8% |
Sales growth 2019 5% |
Sales growth 2020 3% |
Terminal growth 2% |
Net operating profit margin 2016 rate rounded to three decimal places |
Net operating asset turnover 2016 rate rounded to three decimal places |
Please help calculate this question. Please show all calculations needed.
DuPont Analysis, Forecasting with the Parsimonious Method and Estimating Share Value of Cisco Systems Inc Using the DCF Model Cisco Systems, Inc. is a multinational information technology company headquartered in San Jose, California, that produces and sells networking hardware, telecommunications equipment and other high-technology services. Cisco Systems was founded in December 1984 by Leonard Bosack and Sandy Lerner, two Stanford University computer scientists, who pioneered the concept of a local area network (LAN). In 1990, Cisco Systems went public with a market capitalization of $224 million. By 2000 , Cisco had become the most valuable company in the world with a more than $500 billion market capitalization. The stock was initially listed on the NASDAQ in 1990, and then was added to the Dow Jones Industrial Average on June 8, 2009. Cisco is currently included in the S\&P 500 Index, the Russell 1000 Index, NASDAQ-100 Index and the Russell 1000 Growth Stock Index. 1 As Figure 1 shows, the stock price of Cisco Systems peaked in 1999-2000 before the burst of internet bubble. However, its stock price has been fluctuating in the range of $10$30 since 2001 . 1 See https://en.wikipedia,org/wiki/Cisco_Systems Following are the income statement and balance sheet for Cisco Systems for the year ended July 30,2016 . Cisco Systems Inc. Consolidated Balance Sheets This appendix explains a parsimonious method to obtain forecast for net operating profit after tax (NOPAT) and for net operating assets (NOA). This method requires three crucial inputs: 1. Sales growth. 2. Net operating profit margin (NOPM); Defined in Module 4 as NOPAT divide by sales. 3. Net operating asset turnover (NOAT); defined in Module 4 as sales divide by average NOA. (For forecasting purposes, we define NOAT as sales divide by year-end NOA instead of average NOA because we want to forecast year-end values.) Multiyear Forecasting with Parsimonious Method We use Procter \& Gamble's 2016 income statement from Exhibit 12.2, and its 2016 balance sheet form Exhibit 12.3, to determine the following measures. We assume that P\&G's statutory tax rate is 37% on nonoperating revenues and expenses. *we use ending balance sheet amounts, rather than average amounts, because we forecast ending balance ending balance sheet amounts. Each year's forecasted sales is the prior year sales multiplied successively by (1+ growth rate) and then rounded to whole digits. Consistent with our prior revenue growth rate assumption for P&G, we define "1+ growth rate" as 1.01 for 2017 and 1.02 for 2018 onward. NOPAT is computed using forecasted ( and rounded) sales each year times the 2016 NOPM of 15.4%; and NOA is computed using forecasted (and rounded) sales divided by the 2016 NOAT of 0.93 . Forecasted numbers for 2017 through 2020 are in Exhibit 12B.1; supporting computations are in parentheses. This forecasting process can be continued for any desired forecast horizon. Also, the forecast assumption such as sales growth, NOPM, and NOAT can be varied by year, if desired. This parsimonious method is simpler than the method illustrated in this method. However, its simplicity foregoes information than can improve forecast accuracy. Forecasted NOPAT = Forecasted net sales ( rounded) 2016 NOPM Forecasted NOA = Forecasted net sales (rounded) 2016 NOAT
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