2017SP - MAT 143 - STD RISK GROUP LAB Names It's not possible to predict all possible outcomes in the \"real world,\" so previously collected data can be relied upon to determine risks. This method of calculating probabilities is known as Empirical or Experimental Probability. This type of probability calculation is based on observational data. The same rules that have already been established for theoretical probabilities will also apply here. Answer the following questions, giving your answers as decimals (rounded to four places). STDs - Why Empirical Probability Matters! Go explore the following CDC webpage: NCHHSTP Atlas:http://gis.cdc.gov/GRASP/NCHHSTPAtlas/main.html?s_cid=nchhstp-atlas-006 Click on this link https://youtu.be/miDHa9qo5YA for the tutorial to see how the Atlas works. The atlas can help answer the last question but it is not needed to answer problems 1 and 2. 1 The website http://gis.cdc.gov/GRASP/NCHHSTPAtlas/main.html?s_cid=nchhstp-atlas-006 was used to gather data on the cases of chlamydia in North Carolina for 2014. (Questions 4 points each) Note that the rate is the same as finding the experimental probability of a random individual in the age group with chlamydia. The rate per 100,000 people shows how many people out of 100,000 would have chlamydia. Age 0-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-54 55-64 65+ Group Cases 401 13,153 19,625 7,837 3,182 1,456 767 526 158 27 Rate 0.021% 2.019% 2.758% 1.226% 0.501% 0.234% 0.112% 0.039% 0.013% 0.002% Rate per 100,000 21 2019 2758 1226 501 234 112 39 13 2 people A Which age group in North Carolina has the lowest rate of chlamydia? 1A) B Which age group in North Carolina has the highest incidence rate of chlamydia? 1B) C Determine P(an individual your age grouphas chlamydia) . 1C) D Given that the population of NC in 2014 was 9.944 million, calculate the overall incidence rate of chlamydia in NC. (Summing the rates is incorrect as there are different totals per age category in the population and the number of cases.) 1D) 1 E Determine P(an individualthe2024 age goup has chlamydia) . 1E) F Determine P(an individualthe2024 age group does not have chlamydia ) . 1F) G Explain why or why not each person in the 20-24 age group has the same probability of having chlamydia. 1G) H Suppose that an individual has three different sexual partners from within the 20-24 age group and suppose that all people in that age group are equally likely carriers of chlamydia. a Determine P Partner 1 and Partner 2 and Partner 3 have chlamydia . 1H.a) b Determine P Partner 1 and Partner 2 and Partner 3 do not have chlamydia 1H.b) c Determine P( AT LEAST ONE sexual partner ( out of the three ) has chlamydia) . 1H.c) d Suppose that you increase your number of sexual partners to 10. Determine P( AT LEAST ONE sexual partner ( out of the ten ) has chlamydia) . 1H.d) e Determine how many different sexual partners, from within the 20-24 age group, one would have to have such that there would be a 35% probability that at least one partner had chlamydia. (Again, suppose that all people in that age group are equally likely carriers of chlamydia.) 1H.e) 2 3 I Fortunately, gonorrhea, chlamydia, and syphilis are bacterial infections that can be cured when diagnosed properly. On the other hand, genital herpes is a virus that, while treatable, is incurable. \"The CDC estimates that, annually, 776,000 people in the United States get new herpes infections. Genital herpes infection is common in the United States. Nationwide, 16.2%, or about one out of six, people aged 14 to 49 years have genital HSV-2 infection. Over the past decade, the percentage of persons with genital herpes infection in the United States has remained stable.\" http://www.cdc.gov/std/herpes/STDFact-Herpes.htm Suppose that a person has three sexual partners from within the 14-49 age group and suppose that all people in that age group are equally likely carriers of genital herpes. a Determine P Partner 1 and Partner 2 and Partner 3 is a genital herpes carrier . 1I.a) b Determine P Partner 1 and Partner 2 and Partner 3 are not a genital herpes carrier . 1I.b) c Determine P( AT LEAST ONE sexual partner(out of the 3) is a genital herpes carrier) . 1I.c) d Suppose that you increase your number of sexual partners to 10. Determine P( AT LEAST ONE sexual partner(out of the ten)is a genital herpes carrier ) . Explain why or why not you are surprised at the above probability. 1I.d) 1. Safe Sex? Have you ever known anyone who became pregnant even though they used a condom? You don't have to answer that, but let's explore some facts. The CDC estimates the \"use failure rate\" to prevent pregnancies for condoms to be 18%. Note that this is not the actual structural failure rate, but rather human error in use. http://www.cdc.gov/reproductivehealth/unintendedpregnancy/contraception.htm (5 pts each) a human error failure of using of condoms once A. Determine ) P 2A) B. Determine a human error failure of using of condoms five a row ) P 2B) 4 C. Determine a human error failure of using of condoms ten in a row) P 2C) 5 D. Determine a zero humanerror failure of using of condoms ten in a row) P 2D) E. Determine how many times an individual would have to use condoms such that there would be 95% probability that there would be at least one human error failure of using a condom. 2E) 3. Explain why an understanding of probability is/could be personally important to you? Feel free to explore http://gis.cdc.gov/GRASP/NCHHSTPAtlas/main.html?s_cid=nchhstp-atlas-006 more or consider other ways that empirical probabilities are used everywhere. (10 pts) 3) 6