3. Biotech company Moderna Inc. has recently started a Phase 2 study for its experimental vaccine candidate against the novel coronavirus. Let's suppose that its stock St follows a lognormal model. On May 29, 2020, the closing stock price of Moderna was so = 61.5, and the implied volatility of its options with maturity T = 0.4 was 120%. If we assume that the annual return demanded by investors is a = 30%, compute the probability P(40