3. Using the single family mortgage values, calibrate a time-series regression model. Relate mortgages to periods 1 through 23 (years 1990 to 2012). Include an intercept in your model. Construct a graph that shows the actual values and the forecast values of your forecast. Calculate the mean absolute error of your forecast

	Single-Family Mortgages	Single-Family ARMs	Single-Family FRMs	Conventional	Conventional ARMs
1990	$458,440	$127,640	$330,800	$380,513	$127,031
1991	$562,074	$135,015	$427,059	$498,482	$132,210
1992	$893,666	$204,722	$688,944	$828,767	$195,818
1993	$1,019,861	$236,207	$783,654	$925,009	$222,191
1994	$773,121	$308,212	$464,909	$630,767	$281,279
1995	$639,430	$231,807	$407,623	$568,394	$213,162
1996	$785,329	$238,517	$546,812	$678,414	$217,436
1997	$859,120	$223,547	$635,573	$755,478	$196,255
1998	$1,450,000	$236,231	$1,213,769	$1,301,470	$224,595
1999	$1,310,000	$317,788	$992,212	$1,134,304	$309,330
2000	$1,048,000	$311,349	$736,651	$929,094	$301,852
2001	$2,215,000	$367,959	$1,847,041	$2,044,186	$363,673
2002	$2,885,000	$613,885	$2,271,115	$2,696,939	$600,096
2003	$3,945,000	$838,689	$3,106,311	$3,710,699	$823,961
2004	$2,920,000	$1,136,216	$1,783,784	$2,787,437	$1,115,660
2005	$3,120,000	$1,101,952	$2,018,048	$3,032,879	$1,094,345
2006	$2,980,000	$922,728	$2,057,272	$2,895,378	$920,723
2007	$2,430,000	$401,886	$2,028,114	$2,330,972	$400,553
2008	$1,500,000	$133,098	$1,366,902	$1,218,606	$127,572
2009	$1,780,000	$44,990	$1,735,010	$1,419,384	$43,830
2010	$1,880,000	$124,098	$1,456,010	$1,284,652	$45,860
2011	$1,876,000	$186,753	$1,856,020	$1,384,560	$56,860
2012	$1,780,000	$124,098	$2,028,114	$1,419,384	$1,094,345