$4\mathrm{.}6$ The monthly sales for Yazici Batteries, Inc., were as follows:

Summary: Forecasting

Plot the monthly sales data.

Forecast January sales using each of the following:

I. Naive method.

II$.$ A $3-$month moving average.

III. A $6-$month weighted average using $\mathrm{.}1,\mathrm{.}1,\mathrm{.}1,\mathrm{.}2,\mathrm{.}2,$ and $\mathrm{.}3,$ with the heaviest weights applied to the most recent $m$

IV$.$ Exponential smoothing using an and a September forecast of $18.$

V$.$ A trend projection.

With the data given, which method would allow you to forecast next March's sales?