4. Forecasting Attendance at Southwestern University Football Games (Case Study) Southwestern University (SWU), a large state college in Stephenville, Texas, 30 miles southwest of the Dallas/Fort Worth metroplex, enrolls close to 20,000 students. In a typical town-gown relationship, the school is a dominant force in the small city, with more students during fall and spring than permanent residents. A longtime football powerhouse, SWU is a member of the Big Eleven conference and is usually in the top 20 in college football rankings. To bolster its chances of reaching the elusive and long-desired number-one ranking, in 2002 SWU hired the legendary Bo Pitterno as its head coach. Although the number-one ranking remained out of reach, attendance at the five Saturday home games each year increased. Prior to Pitternos arrival, attendance generally averaged 25,000 to 29,000 per game. Season ticket sales bumped up by 10,000 just with the announcement of the new coachs arrival. Stephenville and SWU were ready to move to the big time! The immediate issue facing SWU, however, was not NCAA ranking. It was capacity. The existing SWU stadium, built in 1953, has seating for 54,000 fans. The following table indicates attendance at each game for the past six years. Southwestern University Football Game Attendance, 2002-2007. Year Attendees 2002 35500 2003 36700 2004 39700 2005 41000 2006 48300 2007 40400 2008 ? 2009 ? One of Pitternos demands upon joining SWU had been a stadium expansion, or possibly even a new stadium. With attendance increasing, SWU administrators began to face the issue head-on. Pitterno had wanted dormitories solely for his athletes in the stadium as an additional feature of any expansion. SWUs president, Dr. Marty Starr, decided it was time for his vice president of development to forecast when the existing stadium would max out. He also sought a revenue projection, assuming an average ticket price of $30 in 2008 and a 5% increase in each year in future prices. Discussion Questions: Use QM for Windows to solve and show all your explanations and calculations to answer the following: - 1. Develop a forecasting model, justifying its selection over other techniques, and project attendance through 2009. 2. Develop a 3-year weighted moving average to forecast 2008. 3. Develop an exponential smoothing model to forecast 2008, using an alpha equal = 0.7 and assuming the year 2002 forecast was 34000 attendees. 4. Which model of the three you recommend and why? 5. What revenues are to be expected in 2008 and 2009? 6. When (what year) the existing stadium would max out? 7. Discuss the universitys options.