4.) Heating.XLS: Create a reasonable model to predict the number of heating equipment orders for a given month. The possible predictors include the number of new homes for sale, current monthly deviation of temperature from historical average temperature, the prime lending rate, current distributor inventory levels, the amount of distributor sell through, and the level of discounting being offered. This data is in time order. Create a reasonable model that meets assumptions. Produce forecasts for this series up to 5 time periods beyond those observed in the data. Produce a plot with the estimates overlaid on the original data. How do the estimates seem to fit the series that was provided? wering the questions asked and use a=0.05 unless otherwise specified. For each problem please do the following in addition to anything the individual problem asks: Observe and describe the basic nature of the series in question Fit an appropriate model for the series Determine adequacy of model to fit data and assess validity of selected model Forecast response for requested time interval(s) . . . . File Home Insert Page Layout Formulas Data Review View Help 1 fx index OOOOOOOOOOOOON 412 UO OO B C D E F G H index Heating Units I rate Num New Homes Discount Inventories Sell Through Temp Dev year month 1 121 0.075 64 3536 615 2.22 1999 1 2 227 0.075 1999 64 3042 813 0.28 2 3 446 0.075 2456 65 704 0.79 3 1999 4 731 0.075 65 2198 1094 0.79 1999 4 5 1017 0.075 1835 825 65 1999 3.42 5 6 1473 68 0.075 2027 1140 2.14 6 1999 7 933 0.08 2360 69 1023 2.33 7 1999 8 2004 0.08 68 2270 1168 0.02 1999 8 9 0.083 3224 70 3106 2388 1999 0.42 9 1 10 1176 0.083 68 3942 1024 0.19 1999 10 2 11 68 1375 0.083 4094 1999 963 2.89 11 3 12 0.085 1206 70 4506 2225 1999 1.33 12 4 13 123 0.085 68 3487 538 0.53 2000 1 5 14 0 0.088 64 3072 650 0.91 2000 2 6 15 863 0.088 64 2422 574 0.61 2000 3 7 16 0.09 60 0 2711 1014 1.59 2000 4 8 17 851 0.09 61 2109 871 1.42 2000 5 9 18 5105 0.095 64 5 2089 1078 0.3 2000 6 0 19 387 0.095 61 0 6116 961 0.48 2000 7 21 20 1270 0.095 63 5542 991 1.29 2000 8 22 298 0.095 21 62 5821 1764 0.19 2000 9 3 22 2092 0.095 62 0 4355 949 0.47 2000 10 24 23 -5 0.095 63 5498 879 2.56 2000 11 25 24 3688 0.095 62 4614 1160 0.09 2000 12 26 25 8 0.095 61 7142 574 2.25 2001 1 27 26 12 0.085 59 6576 603 2.12 2001 2 28 27 34 0.085 61 5985 742 0.33 2001 3 29 28 0 0.075 65 3069 618 0.11 2001 5 30 29 66 0.07 68 2451 735 2.7 2001 6 31 30 703 0.068 70 1782 735 2.33 2001 7 32 31 729 0.068 69 1750 734 0.03 2001 B 33 32 1013 0.065 70 1745 735 0.61 2001 9 33 1333 0.06 71 2023 973 1.43 2001 10 35 34 215 0.055 72 2383 789 1.66 2001 11 36 35 425 0.05 69 1809 0.86 2001 12 37 36 833 0.048 70 1402 718 1 2002 1 38 37 854 0.048 67 1517 730 0.94 2002 2 39 38 498 0.048 63 1641 667 3.21 2002 3 40 39 598 0.048 65 1472 919 0.54 2002 4 41 40 961 0.048 66 1151 695 2.22 2002 5 42 41 754 0.048 64 1417 927 0.81 2002 6 43 42 1098 0.048 65 1244 877 0.28 2002 7 44 43 1158 0.048 65 1465 809 0.5 2002 8 45 46 832 4.) Heating.XLS: Create a reasonable model to predict the number of heating equipment orders for a given month. The possible predictors include the number of new homes for sale, current monthly deviation of temperature from historical average temperature, the prime lending rate, current distributor inventory levels, the amount of distributor sell through, and the level of discounting being offered. This data is in time order. Create a reasonable model that meets assumptions. Produce forecasts for this series up to 5 time periods beyond those observed in the data. Produce a plot with the estimates overlaid on the original data. How do the estimates seem to fit the series that was provided? wering the questions asked and use a=0.05 unless otherwise specified. For each problem please do the following in addition to anything the individual problem asks: Observe and describe the basic nature of the series in question Fit an appropriate model for the series Determine adequacy of model to fit data and assess validity of selected model Forecast response for requested time interval(s) . . . . File Home Insert Page Layout Formulas Data Review View Help 1 fx index OOOOOOOOOOOOON 412 UO OO B C D E F G H index Heating Units I rate Num New Homes Discount Inventories Sell Through Temp Dev year month 1 121 0.075 64 3536 615 2.22 1999 1 2 227 0.075 1999 64 3042 813 0.28 2 3 446 0.075 2456 65 704 0.79 3 1999 4 731 0.075 65 2198 1094 0.79 1999 4 5 1017 0.075 1835 825 65 1999 3.42 5 6 1473 68 0.075 2027 1140 2.14 6 1999 7 933 0.08 2360 69 1023 2.33 7 1999 8 2004 0.08 68 2270 1168 0.02 1999 8 9 0.083 3224 70 3106 2388 1999 0.42 9 1 10 1176 0.083 68 3942 1024 0.19 1999 10 2 11 68 1375 0.083 4094 1999 963 2.89 11 3 12 0.085 1206 70 4506 2225 1999 1.33 12 4 13 123 0.085 68 3487 538 0.53 2000 1 5 14 0 0.088 64 3072 650 0.91 2000 2 6 15 863 0.088 64 2422 574 0.61 2000 3 7 16 0.09 60 0 2711 1014 1.59 2000 4 8 17 851 0.09 61 2109 871 1.42 2000 5 9 18 5105 0.095 64 5 2089 1078 0.3 2000 6 0 19 387 0.095 61 0 6116 961 0.48 2000 7 21 20 1270 0.095 63 5542 991 1.29 2000 8 22 298 0.095 21 62 5821 1764 0.19 2000 9 3 22 2092 0.095 62 0 4355 949 0.47 2000 10 24 23 -5 0.095 63 5498 879 2.56 2000 11 25 24 3688 0.095 62 4614 1160 0.09 2000 12 26 25 8 0.095 61 7142 574 2.25 2001 1 27 26 12 0.085 59 6576 603 2.12 2001 2 28 27 34 0.085 61 5985 742 0.33 2001 3 29 28 0 0.075 65 3069 618 0.11 2001 5 30 29 66 0.07 68 2451 735 2.7 2001 6 31 30 703 0.068 70 1782 735 2.33 2001 7 32 31 729 0.068 69 1750 734 0.03 2001 B 33 32 1013 0.065 70 1745 735 0.61 2001 9 33 1333 0.06 71 2023 973 1.43 2001 10 35 34 215 0.055 72 2383 789 1.66 2001 11 36 35 425 0.05 69 1809 0.86 2001 12 37 36 833 0.048 70 1402 718 1 2002 1 38 37 854 0.048 67 1517 730 0.94 2002 2 39 38 498 0.048 63 1641 667 3.21 2002 3 40 39 598 0.048 65 1472 919 0.54 2002 4 41 40 961 0.048 66 1151 695 2.22 2002 5 42 41 754 0.048 64 1417 927 0.81 2002 6 43 42 1098 0.048 65 1244 877 0.28 2002 7 44 43 1158 0.048 65 1465 809 0.5 2002 8 45 46 832