4. Juan Bonito, Manager of Charros S. A. wishes to determine the profit of a possible investment and also its risk. He prefers not to accept the investment if there is more than a 5% chance that there will be less than a 10% Rate of Return Ratio. He has estimated that the chance of the project having a 10-year life is 60%; 9-year life, 20%; 8-year life, 10%; 11-year life, 5%; 12-year life, 5%. He also estimates that there is a 40% probability that the investment will be 10,000; 25% that it will be 11,000; 10% that it will be 12,000; 10% that it will be 9,000; 10% that it will be 8,000 and 5% that it will be 7,000. He has estimated annual profits of 50% to be 3,000; 20% to be 4,000 and 30% to be 2,000. On a 20 trial basis, will Juan Bonito accept the project? Suppose a friend of Juan's suggests that you do the analysis using the benefit/cost ratio instead of the rate of return ratio. What conclusion would you draw by redoing the 20 trials?

5. Suppose it is desired to know whether to accept a shipment of a large quantity of products. Because of the expense of performing an actual inspection, you have found it necessary to make the decision based on simulation. the decision on the basis of simulation. Assume that a sample of 100 products is taken and that a lot is considered bad if it has that the lot is considered bad if it has more than 4 defective products.

4. Juan Bonito, Gerente de Charros S. A. desea determinar la ganancia de una posible inversin y adems su riesgo. El prefiere no aceptar la inversin si hay ms del 5% de posibilidad de que existir menos de un 10% en la Tasa de Razn de Retorno. El ha estimado que la posibilidad de que el proyecto tenga una vida de 10 aos es 60%; vida de 9 aos, 20%; vida de 8 aos, 10%; de 11 aos, 5%; 12 aos, 5%. El adems estima que hay un 40% de probabilidad que la inversin ser de 10,000; un 25% que sea de $11,000; 10% que sea de $12,000; 10% que sea $9,000; 10% que sea $8,000 y un 5% que sea $7,000. Las ganancias anuales las ha estimado en un 50% que ser de $3,000; 20% que ser $4,000 y 30% que ser $2,000. Sobre una base de 20 pruebas, aceptar el proyecto Juan Bonito?. Suponga que un amigo de Juan le sugiere hacer el anlisis utilizando el radio beneficio/costo en vez de la tasa de razn de retorno. Qu conclusin obtendra al volver a hacer las 20 pruebas?. 5. Suponga que se desea saber si aceptar un embarque de una gran cantidad de productos. Por lo caro de realizar una inspeccin real se ha visto la necesidad de tomar la decisin en base a simulacin. Asuma que se toma una muestra de 100 productos y que se considera malo el lote si tiene ms de 4 defectuosos