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4. Your retail business sells live Christmas trees. You have to decide how many trees to order from the farmer. Based on your historical sales,

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4. Your retail business sells live Christmas trees. You have to decide how many trees to order from the farmer. Based on your historical sales, you think the probability of selling 700 is 0.3, 1400 is 0.4, and 2100 is 0.3. You can buy each tree from the farmer for $30 and sell each tree for $50. If you have leftover trees at the end of the season, you can sell them to local homeless shelters for $15. a. Calculate all EMVs and recommend a strategy. (40 pts) b. You could hire a consultant for $400 to study and provide more information on the market conditions. There is an 80% chance the study is favorable. With a favorable study, the probability of selling 700 is 0.1, 1400 is 0.5, 2100 is 0.4. If the study is unfavorable, the probability of selling 700 is 0.6, 1400 is 0.2, 2100 is 0.2. Calculate EMVs, draw a decision tree and write the strategy displayed in the tree. (70 pts) c. Calculate EVSI. (15 pts)

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