4.49 A company receives large shipments of parts from two sources. Seventy percent of the shipments come from a supplier whose shipments typically contain 10% defectives, while the remainder are from a supplierwhose shipments typically contain 20% defectives, A manager receives a shipment but does not know the source. A random sample of 20 items from this ship- ment is tested, and 1 of the parts is found to be defec- tive. What is the probability that this shipment came from the more reliable supplier? (Hint: Use Bayes' theorem.)