4.7 #3

Edit The disease chikungunya arrived in the Americas in 2013 and spread rapidly in 2014. While seldom fatal, the disease causes debilitating joint pain and a high fever. In August 2014, a public challenge was issued to predict the number of cases in each of the affected countries. The winners, Joceline Lega and Heidi Brown, used a logistic model to make their predictions. Let N be the total number of cases of chikungunya in a country by week t, where t is measured since the first cases were recorded in that country. The progress of the disease in three Caribbean countries is represented by the logistic functions: 539, 227 Dominican Republic = 1 + 176.8e-0.35t 3, 771 Dominica = 1 + 941.75e-0.32t 81, 780 Guadeloupe 1 + 27, 259e-0.32t By the time the outbreak was over, which of these three countries had had neither the largest nor the smallest number of cases of chikungunya? Guadeloupe How many cases was that? 0.32 http://www.darpa.milews-events/2015-05-27. Based on J. Lega and H. Brown, "Data-Driven Outbreak Forecasting with a Simple Nonlinear Growth Model", Epidemics, Vol. 17, December 2016, pp. 19-26