4.7 #5

The disease chikungunya arrived in the Americas in 2013 and spread rapidly in 2014. While seldom fatal, the disease causes debilitating joint pain and a high fever. In August 2014, a public challenge was issued to predict the number of cases in each of the affected countries. The winners, Joceline Lega and Heidi Brown, used a logistic model to make their predictions. Let / be the total number of cases of chikungunya in a country by week t, where t is measured since the first cases were recorded in that country. The progress of the disease in three Caribbean countries is represented by the logistic functions: 539, 227 Dominican Republic = 1 + 176.8e-0.35t 3, 771 Dominica = 1 + 941.75e-0.32t 81, 780 Guadeloupe = 1 + 27, 259e-0.32t At the start of their outbreak, which of these three countries had the largest number of cases of chikungunya? The Dominican Republic How many cases was that? NOTE: Round your answer to the nearest integer. 0.35 X http://www.darpa.milews-events/2015-05-27. Based on J. Lega and H. Brown, "Data-Driven Outbreak Forecasting with a Simple Nonlinear Growth Model"