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5 (15 points ). Bayesian Updating :5 points )Imagine that you're facing an opaque urn . You know that the urn is either type 1,

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5 (15 points ). Bayesian Updating :5 points )Imagine that you're facing an opaque urn . You know that the urn is either type 1, in which case it :ontains 75 blue balls and 25 red balls , or is type 2, in which case it contains 40 blue balls and 60 red balls . You believe that you are equally likely to be facing either type of urn. You reach into the urn without looking and pull out a red ball. What are the odds that the urn is type 1? :l-lint : use the odds form of Bayes 'rule) :5 points) You replace the red ball into urn, and pull out another ball, which turns out to be blue. What are he odds that the urn is type 1? Are they higher or lower than your prior odds that the urn is type 1? :5 points )Now imagine that instead of drawing the previous two balls , you drew two balls sequentially without replacement .The first ball happens to be red, and you set it aside (not back in the urn). The second )a]l happens to be blue .After drawing both these balls , what are the odds that you're facing a type 1 urn? 3. (10 points )Indicate whether each of the random variables below is discrete or [5 Number if birds seen by travelers in a bird -watching expedition (2 points ) Question 5 (15 points ). Bayesian Updating

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